Gold Retreats 0.8% to $4,144 as Ghana Halts Exports and Speculators Pull Back

Gold closed Friday at $4,144.04 an ounce, down 0.8%, as fading speculative bets, shrinking ETF holdings and Ghana's export suspension weighed.

Gold ended Friday's session at $4,144.04 an ounce, down 0.8%, as a trio of forces — fading speculative appetite, shrinking ETF holdings and a surprise supply-side intervention in West Africa — combined to keep the metal pinned well below its January peak.

The yellow metal now trades roughly 26% beneath its 52-week high of $5,598.58, a level struck at the end of January. Positioning data tells much of the story: net long positions held by asset managers fell in the week through September 22 to their lowest since late July, according to CFTC futures-market figures cited by Reuters. Traders have been steadily unwinding bets on further gains.

Exchange-traded funds have mirrored that caution. Gold ETFs shed 1.6 tonnes in the prior week, trimming total global holdings to 4,249 tonnes, the World Gold Council reported. That exodus removes a cushion that had softened earlier price dips.

Ghana Steps In, China Steps Back

On the supply side, Ghana's central bank has moved to rebuild its foreign-exchange reserves, Governor Johnson Asiama said, and state gold buyer GoldBod has kept exports suspended since August. The West African nation's bullion reserves stood at 24.4 tonnes in June 2026, down from 33 tonnes a year earlier.

Physical demand in Asia offers little offset. Reuters reported noticeably weaker buying interest in China ahead of the country's October 1–7 holidays, with local premiums over the global benchmark fading to zero by the end of last week. The World Gold Council notes that China's Golden Week typically kicks off the seasonal gold-buying calendar, a period when jewelry sales, dealer restocking and local markups usually climb. This year, softer consumer confidence and elevated prices have weighed on Chinese jewelry demand throughout.

Attention is also turning to India, where StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell said on September 29 that upcoming Diwali-related purchases and the wedding season could act as market supports, alongside continued central bank buying.

Rates and Energy Keep Inflation Fears Alive

Macro headwinds remain the dominant drag. A standoff in US–Iran negotiations and firm crude oil prices have kept inflation worries simmering, feeding expectations in futures markets that the Federal Reserve may hold rates high for longer. Yields on US Treasuries stayed near multi-year highs, snuffing out an intraday rally in bullion.

Recent data offered only fleeting relief. September's US payrolls report, released Friday, showed just 29,000 new jobs, while the core PCE price index held at 3.0% in August. Neither was enough to shift the rate narrative.

Forecasts are split accordingly. Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah laid out three paths on September 29: a base case of $4,100 an ounce by the end of 2026, a bear scenario of $3,500 if rate and energy pressures intensify, and a bullish case above $5,250.

With the latest pullback in place, market participants are now training their sights on the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision on October 28 for the next directional signal.