Tungsten’s Perfect Storm: Almonty’s Korean Mine Faces a High-Stakes Test

Tungsten prices surge 900% YoY, but Almonty shares fall 6.6% on Sangdong mine delays. China's export chokehold and US defense mandates create a strategic opportunity.

The tungsten market is on fire, but Almonty Industries finds itself navigating two opposing currents. While prices for ammonium paratungstate (APT) in Rotterdam have surged to roughly 3,185 US dollars per metric ton unit — an eye-popping 900 percent jump year-over-year — the company’s stock took a 6.6 percent hit in European trading, sliding to 17.26 euros, and closed in Canada at 26.59 Canadian dollars, down nearly five percent. The culprit: reports of delays at the Sangdong mine in South Korea, the linchpin of Almonty’s strategy.

Sangdong is no ordinary project. After more than three decades of dormancy, the mine resumed operations in March 2026, with Phase 1 commissioning wrapping up at the end of that month. The facility is designed to process 640,000 tonnes of ore annually and churn out roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Its ore grade, at around 0.51 percent tungsten trioxide, is about three times the global average — a buffer that should protect margins even if prices eventually retreat.

A Supply Squeeze With No Easy Fix

The backdrop to Almonty’s ambitions is a structural crisis in the tungsten market. China controls roughly 80 percent of global production and has tightened export licenses to just 15 authorized companies through 2027. That chokehold is already rippling through the semiconductor industry: Japanese producers of tungsten hexafluoride (WF?) — which accounts for about 25 percent of global supply — have warned South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix of potential shortages in the second half of 2026. Inventories are expected to last only until June. WF? is irreplaceable in the production of advanced 3D NAND memory chips, meaning any disruption could stall output.

The raw material squeeze is visible in APT prices, which have rocketed from around 900 US dollars per metric ton unit at the end of 2025 to over 3,000 dollars in April 2026 — a gain of more than 230 percent in just a few months. For Almonty, this is both an opportunity and a test of execution.

Tariff Exemptions and Pentagon Mandates

Almonty enjoys a structural edge in the current trade environment. Washington has explicitly exempted the company’s tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides from US retaliatory tariffs, thanks to a long-term supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders in Pennsylvania. That protection becomes even more valuable from January 1, 2027, when a Pentagon mandate will require US defense contractors to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. The United States has had no commercial tungsten production of its own since 2015.

Almonty has been deepening its defense ties, partnering with American Defense International and participating in the Department of Defense-backed Critical Minerals Forum. In April 2026, the company relocated its headquarters to the US. Its Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana — fully acquired in 2025 — is expected to be production-ready in the second half of 2026 and is considered one of the most advanced undeveloped tungsten deposits in America.

The Numbers That Matter

Despite the recent stock pullback — which leaves shares about 17 percent below their April high of 32.07 Canadian dollars — the twelve-month gain still exceeds 650 percent. Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 climbed 39 percent to 8.7 million US dollars. The reported net loss of 102.3 million dollars is largely accounting-driven: 87.3 million dollars stems from a non-cash revaluation of derivative liabilities triggered by the sharp rise in the stock price. Almonty ended fiscal 2025 with 268.4 million dollars in cash.

Analysts at Texas Capital, DA Davidson, and B. Riley Financial all rate the stock a buy, with price targets ranging from 23 to 25 US dollars. Those targets now sit below the current trading price — a sign that the rally has already overshot Wall Street’s expectations.

The Next Catalyst

All eyes are now on May 21, when Almonty releases its quarterly report, including the first concrete production data from Sangdong. Investors have been waiting months for these numbers. On June 8, the annual general meeting will follow, where management is expected to provide updates on the Phase 2 expansion — planned for 2027 and designed to double processing capacity to roughly 1.2 million tonnes of ore per year — and the integration of US operations.

At full capacity, Sangdong could supply about 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China. Whether Almonty can translate the tungsten boom into operational results — and how quickly it resolves the Sangdong hiccups — will determine if the stock’s meteoric rise has real staying power.