Analyst Maintains Buy Rating for Tilray but Slashes Price Target Following Stock Consolidation

Tilray US88688T1007

A significant revision to Tilray Brands, Inc.'s valuation has emerged from Wall Street, casting a new light on the cannabis and beverage company's prospects. In a move that underscores sector-wide challenges, TD Cowen has drastically reduced its price target for the firm's shares while paradoxically reaffirming a positive investment stance.

TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow issued an updated assessment on Thursday, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation for Tilray. However, in a substantial downward adjustment, he set a new $10.00 price target. This revised figure accounts for the company's recent change in capital structure and persistent difficulties within its core markets.

The cut is severe. The new target equates to a pre-split equivalent of $2.50, down sharply from a previous pre-split target of $25.00. Moskow cited a dual challenge as the rationale for this conservative shift: a tough operating environment for craft beer and intensifying competitive pressures across the Canadian cannabis landscape. Despite these hurdles, the $10 target still suggests a considerable potential upside from current trading levels, based on an expected enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple of 12x.

Navigating the Post-Reverse Split Landscape

The most immediate change for shareholders is technical. Tilray executed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, effective December 2, 2025. This corporate action consolidated every ten old shares into a single new share, reducing the total number of outstanding shares from approximately 1.16 billion to about 116 million.

The primary objectives were compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements and an attempt to attract institutional investors by presenting a nominally higher share price. Investors should note that while the per-share price increased tenfold, the company's total market capitalization, estimated between $0.8 and $1.2 billion, remains mathematically unchanged.

Operational Performance and Strategic Moves

Beyond financial engineering, Tilray's operational story shows signs of stabilization. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reported on October 9, 2025, the company posted net revenue of approximately $210 million. A standout figure was the $1.5 million net income, marking a move out of the loss column and demonstrating improved operational footing.

To address the beer market challenges highlighted by analysts, the company has launched a targeted marketing campaign for the holiday season. It aims to capitalize on the traditionally strong third fiscal quarter by promoting specialized "Gift Guides" for its cannabis and beverage product portfolios. The success of these initiatives, and their ability to justify TD Cowen's lowered yet still optimistic price target, will ultimately be measured by upcoming sales figures.