Nebius Hits the Brakes: CoreWeave’s $740 Million Loss Casts a Shadow Over Earnings Week

Nebius shares dip 4% after CoreWeave's grim earnings, but a $50B backlog and $9B revenue target keep investors eyeing Q1 results on May 13.

The blistering rally in Nebius shares has hit a speed bump. After notching a fresh all-time high, the stock slid more than 4% on Friday to $177.05, dragged down not by its own performance but by a grim quarterly report from rival CoreWeave. The cloud infrastructure provider’s net loss ballooned to $740 million, while it simultaneously raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance, underscoring the punishing cost dynamics ripping through the sector.

The selloff serves as a stark reminder that even with a backlog of nearly $50 billion in contracted revenue, Nebius is not immune to the industry’s margin pressures. Rising hardware costs are squeezing every player, and market watchers now worry that pure revenue growth, without a corresponding improvement in operating leverage, may no longer be enough to sustain the stock’s meteoric ascent.

A $27 Billion Meta Deal and a $50 Billion Backlog

The company’s order book is stuffed. Meta Platforms alone has committed roughly $27 billion through a five-year contract signed this spring, while Microsoft has locked in GPU capacity worth up to $19.4 billion. Nvidia has also placed a strategic bet, investing $2 billion in Nebius in exchange for early access to its latest AI servers. All told, the contracted backlog stands at nearly $50 billion, providing a multiyear visibility that few peers can match.

To fulfill those commitments, Nebius is embarking on an aggressive buildout. The company plans to invest up to $20 billion this year, with nine new data centers under construction, including a recently announced AI factory in Finland. Connected capacity is expected to quintuple to as much as one gigawatt by year-end. Crucially, more than 60% of the capital expenditure will be funded by customer prepayments and internal cash, reducing the need for equity dilution. A recently closed convertible bond, which raised over $4 billion, further shores up liquidity.

The Earnings Test: $375 Million in Revenue and a $9 Billion Annual Target

All eyes are now on Wednesday, May 13, when Nebius reports first-quarter results. Analysts are modeling revenue of $375 million, a massive sequential leap from the prior quarter. But the focus will be on annual recurring revenue, which management has guided to hit as much as $9 billion for the full year. Investors also expect updates on the timeline for Meta’s installations and the integration of the company’s own AI technology.

The stock’s valuation already reflects lofty expectations. The average analyst price target sits at $163, though Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $205 following the Meta deal. Not everyone is convinced. Freedom Capital Markets recently downgraded the stock to “Hold,” citing the sheer velocity of the rally. Meanwhile, insider selling has raised eyebrows: CEO Arkady Volozh and other executives have offloaded roughly $15 million worth of shares over the past three months.

A Pivotal Moment for the Neocloud Thesis

Wednesday’s report will determine whether the stock can resume its record run or faces a recalibration. If Nebius hits the revenue estimates and reaffirms its growth targets, the current premium may be justified. A miss, however, could trigger a sweeping revaluation of the entire neocloud space. With $20 billion in planned investments and a $50 billion backlog, the company is playing for the highest of stakes—and the market is watching every data point.