Wall Street Analysts Boost Price Targets for ASML Amid Strong Sector Outlook

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Leading investment banks are expressing growing confidence in ASML Holding NV, with several firms naming the semiconductor equipment manufacturer a top investment idea for the coming years and significantly raising their share price projections. This bullish sentiment coincides with market speculation about a potential stock split and is supported by key technological milestones.

In a notable move, Bank of America has designated ASML as a "Top Pick" for the upcoming year. Analyst Didier Scemama reaffirmed his Buy rating on the stock and lifted his price objective from $1,092 to $1,331, representing an increase of nearly 22%. The bank's optimism is rooted in an anticipated surge in demand starting in 2027, driven by greater lithography intensity and an expanding market share in the DRAM business.

Echoing this positive view, J.P. Morgan has also positioned the Dutch chipmaking equipment leader as a clear favorite within the sector. The firm's analysts anticipate robust order intake in the fourth quarter of 2025, particularly from memory chip manufacturers. Currently, the consensus price target among Wall Street analysts stands at $1,172.

Speculation Mounts Over Potential Stock Split

Trading above $1,000 per share, ASML is among only 18 U.S.-listed companies with a four-digit share price. This high nominal value can present an entry barrier for some retail investors. A stock split could potentially enhance accessibility and improve liquidity. Historically, the company executed three splits between 1997 and 2000.

Research from Bank of America indicates that shares, on average, tend to advance by 25% in the twelve months following a split announcement. While ASML's management has not commented on the possibility, market discussion on the topic is gaining momentum.

Fundamental Drivers: Technological Leadership and Institutional Investment

The analysts' upgraded outlook is underpinned by concrete industry developments. Intel recently announced the successful installation of the first commercial High-NA EUV system (Twinscan EXE:5200B), a critical milestone for next-generation chip production. ASML has maintained its revenue forecast range of €44 to €60 billion through 2030, with growth for 2025 expected to be approximately 15%.

Institutional investors have been substantially increasing their holdings. For instance, Phraction Management boosted its position by 285% in the third quarter, accumulating over 14,000 shares valued at nearly $13.8 million. Other major asset managers, including T. Rowe Price and Amundi, have also expanded their investments.

Assessing Competitive Threats and Market Position

Recent reports concerning a Chinese EUV prototype, allegedly developed with reverse-engineered components and knowledge from former ASML engineers, caused brief market unease. However, Morningstar maintains its "Wide Moat" rating and a fair value estimate of €850 per share. The research firm notes that the journey from a laboratory prototype to a commercially viable, high-volume machine typically spans years, if not decades.

Furthermore, ASML's revenue share from China is projected to normalize around 20% by 2030. The company's entrenched position with key customers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel remains the decisive factor, as these industry giants continue to rely exclusively on ASML's technology.

Current Trading and Forward Look

ASML shares recently traded at €901.50, roughly 8% below their 52-week high of €976.60. Since the start of the year, the equity has posted a gain of nearly 32%. Investor attention is now focused on the upcoming fourth-quarter order bookings, which J.P. Morgan suggests will likely confirm positive momentum heading into 2026.