SoftBank’s OpenAI Bet Lifts Quarterly Profit, but Concentration Doubts Persist

SoftBank Group reported a fourth consecutive quarter of profitability, buoyed by its stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. Still, enthusiasm in the shares cooled the day after earnings, with the stock slipping nearly 9%.

Key figures at a glance
- Quarterly net income: 248.6 billion Yen (1.62 billion USD)
- Year-ago quarter: loss of 369 billion Yen
- OpenAI investment: cumulative book gain of 19.8 billion USD
- PayPay to pursue a U.S. listing
- February 13 share decline: 8.9%

A sustained rebound helped by OpenAI
For the three months ended December 2025, SoftBank posted a net profit of 248.6 billion Yen, reversing the year-earlier loss of 369 billion Yen. The main driver remains the growing valuation of its OpenAI stake.

Looking at the nine-month totals, the turnaround appears even more pronounced. Net profit reached 3.17 trillion Yen (20.7 billion USD), five times higher than in the prior-year period. Revenue for the nine months climbed about 8% to 5.7 trillion Yen.

Rising concentration risk
SoftBank has committed more than 30 billion USD to OpenAI and holds roughly 11% of the equity. Together with its Arm stake, the two holdings already account for about 65% of the company’s net asset value. The group effectively serves as a listed proxy for OpenAI.

To finance its aggressive investment approach, SoftBank has boosted its debt loads. Loans secured by Arm shares jumped from 13.5 billion to 20 billion USD. Loans secured against SoftBank Corp. shares rose from 800 billion Yen to 1.2 trillion Yen.

Liquidity dynamics through asset disposals
Between June and December 2025, SoftBank sold portions of its T-Mobile stake for 12.7 billion USD. The Nvidia position had already been fully unwound earlier. The loan-to-value ratio ended December at 20.6%, up from 16.5% three months earlier. Cash on hand declined to 3.8 trillion Yen.

PayPay eyes the Nasdaq
On February 13, SoftBank announced that its payments subsidiary PayPay had filed the requisite paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to list American Depositary Shares on the Nasdaq under the symbol PAYP. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Mizuho Securities, and Morgan Stanley are leading the deal.

SoftBank intends to keep PayPay as a subsidiary after the listing, and management does not foresee material effects on group results.

Investor response remains mixed
Ahead of earnings, the stock rose 2.4% on February 12. The following day, sentiment turned sour as the shares fell 8.9%, suggesting investors remain wary about the concentration risk tied to OpenAI.

The discount to net asset value stood at 17% at present, versus 20% at the end of September, and a six-month average of 26%. While the valuation gap has narrowed, the dependence on a single AI wager continues to dominate SoftBank’s narrative.

@ boerse-global.de | JP3436100006 SOFTBANK’S