Buffett's Apple Exit: A Billion-Dollar Regret and the Foldable Future

Warren Buffett admits selling Apple stock too early. Analysts project the 2026 iPhone Fold could unlock $60B in revenue and reshape the smartphone market.

The investment world took note this week as Warren Buffett made a rare public admission: he sold his Apple shares too soon. This candid revelation arrives as Wall Street buzzes with anticipation for Apple's next potential blockbuster—the rumored iPhone Fold—which analysts believe could redefine the smartphone landscape.

The Foldable Catalyst: A $60 Billion Opportunity

While Buffett's comments captured headlines, the forward-looking focus of market experts is firmly on a new product category. Industry analysts are projecting that the anticipated launch of the iPhone Fold in autumn 2026 could be a transformative event for Apple. Morgan Stanley research suggests the company could more than double the global market for foldable smartphones within 18 months of the device's introduction, unlocking an annual revenue opportunity of up to $60 billion.

Bank of America Securities forecasts initial demand could reach 10 to 20 million units, significantly outpacing rival offerings. Specifications point to a device with a 7.7 to 7.8-inch interior display, a thickness under 10 millimeters, and an average selling price around $2,400—approximately triple the cost of a standard iPhone. Should these projections hold, Apple could capture over 22% of the global foldable device market share and 34% of the segment's revenue in its debut year.

A Costly Early Exit

The Oracle of Omaha's regret stems from a substantial divestment. Berkshire Hathaway, having built its stake starting in 2016, saw Apple become its largest single holding, once valued at over $170 billion. Throughout 2023 and 2024, Berkshire reduced its position by about two-thirds, with further sales occurring as recently as February 2026.

In a conversation with CNBC's Becky Quick, Buffett stated plainly, "I sold too early." He quantified the total pre-tax gain from the investment at more than $100 billion. Despite the sales, Apple remains Berkshire's top holding with a carrying value of roughly $62 billion. Buffett was effusive in his praise for CEO Tim Cook, calling him a "fantastic manager" who achieved more with the foundation left by Steve Jobs than Jobs himself could have.

The timing of this sentiment is underscored by Apple's stellar performance. The company posted record revenue of $143.8 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, a near 16% year-over-year increase. iPhone revenue alone climbed to $85.3 billion, also an all-time high.

Risks and the Road Ahead

Apple's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2026, trading down approximately 5% year-to-date. A persistent risk factor remains the company's deep supply-chain reliance on China. Current estimates indicate that an escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions could impose at least $800 million in additional tariff costs on Apple. While Tim Cook has diversified production to India and Vietnam, the majority of iPhone manufacturing continues to be based in China.

The analyst community maintains a generally constructive view. About 60% of covering analysts rate the shares a buy. Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring sees nearly 28% upside potential over a twelve-month horizon. Buffett himself hinted he might re-enter the stock on a further price decline but does not find it sufficiently attractive at current levels. Investors await the next key data point: Apple's quarterly report for Q2 2026, scheduled for April 30.