Barrick Gold: Navigating a Historic Rally and Corporate Transformation

Barrick Mining CA0679011084

A confluence of powerful market forces and significant internal change is defining the current chapter for Barrick Gold. As the gold price shatters records, the mining giant is simultaneously advancing a major strategic restructuring and managing a leadership transition. This analysis examines the key drivers and their potential impact on the company's equity value.

The North American Spin-Off Plan

One of the most closely watched transactions in the mining sector for 2026 is Barrick's proposed separation of its North American assets. According to Reuters, this restructuring is critically dependent on approval from joint-venture partner Newmont.

Newmont holds a right of first refusal on Barrick's 61.5% stake in Nevada Gold Mines (NGM), the crown jewel in the portfolio. The planned spin-off entity is expected to include:
* Nevada Gold Mines (NGM)
* The Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic
* The Fourmile growth project

The North American business is currently valued at approximately $42 billion. Market analysts suggest the newly listed company could trade at a premium to Barrick's current consolidated valuation.

Leadership in Flux

The corporate overhaul extends to the executive suite. Barrick is currently led by Interim CEO Mark Hill following the departure of long-time CEO Mark Bristow. On January 19, the company announced the appointment of Helen Cai as Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective March 1, 2026. She will succeed Graham Shuttleworth, who will depart after the release of the annual report.

Major shareholders, including BlackRock and activist investor Elliott, are monitoring the search for a permanent CEO solution closely.

Unprecedented Gold Market Fundamentals

The precious metals market is experiencing exceptional conditions. Today, gold climbed to an all-time high of $5,110.50 per troy ounce. The metal had already gained 64% in 2025—its strongest annual performance since 1979. Silver reached parallel record levels above $107 per ounce.

Barrick stands to benefit directly from this environment. Key market factors include:
* Robust demand for safe-haven assets amid political uncertainty under the Trump administration
* Substantially increased central bank purchases, averaging 60 tonnes per month (pre-2022: 17 tonnes)
* Record inflows into gold ETFs, with Western holdings rising by 500 tonnes since early 2025
* Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $5,400 per ounce

Research firm Metals Focus believes gold could climb to around $5,500 this year, with any pullbacks viewed by experts as potential buying opportunities.

Operational Performance and Recent Developments

Barrick shareholders have seen significant gains over the past twelve months. Shares listed in Toronto advanced from CAD 59.79 at the end of 2025 to CAD 69.96 as of January 23, 2026.

Solid Q3 2025 Results

The third quarter of 2025 demonstrated operational strength:
* Gold production increased by 4% quarter-over-quarter, driven mainly by higher ore grades at Kibali
* Gold EBITDA rose by 25% compared to the previous quarter
* The base dividend was raised by 25%
* The share buyback program was expanded to $1.5 billion

Resolution in Mali

A resolution was reached in late 2025 regarding the conflict over the Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali. The military government had previously seized the asset and detained personnel. The dispute left a mark: Mali's industrial gold production fell 22.9% in 2025, with B2Gold displacing Barrick as the country's largest producer.

Growth Pipeline and Valuation Outlook

The company's project pipeline is designed to increase gold-equivalent production volume by more than 30% by 2029. Core components include:
* Fourmile: Has the potential to rank among the world's ten largest gold projects; currently 16 drill rigs are operating
* Goldrush: Ramp-up to approximately 400,000 ounces annually by 2028
* Lumwana Expansion: Copper production is expected to rise to 240,000 tonnes per year
* Reko Diq: One of the world's largest copper-gold projects, on schedule for production start-up by the end of 2028

Financially, analysts project revenue growth from $16.2 billion in 2025 to $23.3 billion in 2028. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to rise from $2.28 to $4.50. Based on these forecasts, the shares currently trade at 13.2 times expected earnings, below the ten-year average of 20.

Upcoming Catalysts and Reporting

Barrick is scheduled to release its full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5. Management is expected to present a detailed timeline for the restructuring and the initial public offering of the North American business. Additionally, updates on negotiations with Newmont regarding the financing of Fourmile and the stake in Nevada Gold Mines are anticipated. These developments are likely to be key determinants of the stock's trajectory in the coming months.