Barrick Gold Charts a New Strategic Course

Barrick CA06849F1080

Mining giant Barrick Gold is implementing a multi-pronged strategic shift, fundamentally reshaping its corporate profile. Two major developments—the resolution of a protracted dispute over a key African mine and the potential separation of core North American assets—are at the heart of this transformation. For investors, the interplay between legal resolution, corporate restructuring plans, and growing analyst confidence presents a compelling narrative.

In a significant strategic move, Barrick's board has unanimously directed management to explore an initial public offering (IPO) for a new subsidiary, tentatively dubbed "NewCo." This entity would consolidate the company's premier gold assets across North and Central America into a focused, standalone story for the market.

The proposed portfolio for this new venture includes:
* Joint venture interests in the Nevada Gold Mines complex
* The Pueblo Viejo operation in the Dominican Republic
* The wholly-owned Fourmile gold project in Nevada, considered one of the most significant gold discoveries this century

According to Group COO and Interim CEO Mark Hill, the Nevada and Dominican Republic assets rank among the world's best, combining high-quality deposits with stable, low-risk jurisdictions. The plan would involve selling a minority stake in NewCo while Barrick retains majority control. Management has committed to providing an update on the IPO process when it releases full-year 2025 results in February 2026. The initiative aims to highlight the embedded value within these assets and offer investors a pure-play exposure to top-tier gold operations in established regions.

Resolution in Mali Restores Critical Cash Flow

A major overhang has been removed with the settlement of a two-year conflict with the government of Mali. Barrick has regained operational control of the crucial Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex, a cornerstone asset in its global portfolio. A Malian court also ordered the return of three tonnes of gold, which had been seized by military helicopter in January 2025.

The agreement, valued at 244 billion CFA francs (approximately $437 million), led the government to drop all charges. Four Barrick employees detained since November 2024 were released the prior month. In turn, Barrick withdrew its international arbitration proceedings, and the court-appointed administrator handed back control of the mine.

Production at Loulo-Gounkoto had been suspended since the confiscation in January, followed by the appointment of a provisional administrator in June. The return to normal operations secures Barrick's full access to a central cash-flow generator and materially reduces the political risk on its balance sheet.

Wall Street Applauds with Upgraded Ratings

The strategic direction is receiving strong endorsement from equity researchers. Sentiment on Wall Street is decidedly bullish, with a consensus "Buy" recommendation covering the stock. Of the 15 analysts providing coverage, ratings break down to seven "Buy," seven "Strong Buy," and only a single "Hold."

Several institutions have recently raised their outlooks:
* National Bankshares lifted its price target in early December from CAD 65.00 to CAD 77.50, maintaining an "Outperform" rating.
* BNP Paribas upgraded the shares to "Strong Buy" on December 5.
* Canaccord Genuity increased its target from CAD 68.00 to CAD 70.00 at the start of the month.
* Citigroup improved its rating from "Hold" to "Strong Buy" in late November.
* Scotiabank had already shifted from "Hold" to "Strong Buy" in October.

The average twelve-month consensus price target stands at CAD 53.69, though the recent upgrades suggest several analysts now see significantly more upside potential than this average reflects. The combination of the Mali resolution and the potential North American separation is providing additional momentum for valuation arguments.

Operational Performance and Market Momentum

The positive strategic developments are underpinned by solid fundamentals. Barrick's most recent quarterly report showed earnings per share of CAD 0.58 on revenues of CAD 3.41 billion. For the full 2025 year, analysts project an average EPS of approximately CAD 2.24, indicating a robust earnings base from which the planned structural changes can launch.

This is reflected in the equity's strong performance. The stock has gained roughly 134% year-to-date and is currently trading at €36.52, just shy of its 52-week high of €36.84. The share price also sits well above its 50-day moving average of €32.01, illustrating its recent strength, although a 14-day RSI reading of 28.4 suggests it may be overbought in the near term.

Maintaining a Diversified Commodity Focus

Strategically, Barrick continues its dual focus as a leading producer of both gold and copper. The company boasts one of the world's largest portfolios of long-life, high-quality mineral deposits, including six Tier-1 gold mines. Its operations span 18 countries across five continents, and it holds the title of the largest gold producer in the United States.

The contemplated North American IPO structure aligns with this broader strategy. It would create a focused gold entity with elite assets in top-rated jurisdictions, offering investors a clearer narrative, while the parent company maintains its geographic and commodity diversification. Management emphasizes that the IPO review will not hinder the execution of ongoing growth projects or operational performance.

With the Mali situation resolved, the spin-off plans advancing, and a confirmed growth trajectory, Barrick has a clear agenda for 2026. The next major milestone will be the February presentation of its 2025 annual results, where the company is expected to provide detailed insights on both its financial performance and the concrete plans for NewCo.