Barrick Gold: A Valuation Gap Emerges Amid Record Gold Forecasts

Barrick Mining CA0679011084

The surge in gold prices is lifting major mining equities, with Barrick Gold Corporation reaching its highest share price in ten years. This momentum follows a significant price target revision from analysts at Bernstein, raising a critical question for investors: does the current rally toward $50 per share represent the early phase of a fundamental re-rating for the stock?

The immediate test for the current bullish sentiment is scheduled for February 5, 2026. On this date, Barrick will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. This report is anticipated to provide concrete evidence of how much of the record-high gold prices have translated into free cash flow for the company. Investors will scrutinize the figures to assess potential room for increased shareholder returns, including dividends.

Beyond speculative price movements, Barrick's management is actively pursuing value creation. The company is currently evaluating an initial public offering (IPO) for its North American assets, a strategic move aimed at unlocking latent value for its shareholders.

Bernstein's Bullish Outlook Provides Momentum

The primary catalyst for the recent upward move was an aggressive research note published by Bernstein on Wednesday. The firm's analysts raised their gold price target for 2026 to a substantial $4,180 per ounce. This projection immediately bolstered sentiment around gold producers like Barrick, as such a price increase would directly flow through to producer margins.

Given that gold had already appreciated by over 60% in 2025, this new forecast suggests the bullish cycle may have further to run. Market participants are positioning for Barrick, as one of the world's largest producers, to benefit disproportionately from this sustained trend.

Attractive Valuation Amid the Rally

Despite the advance to approximately $47.44 (Thursday's NYSE closing price), the equity does not appear fundamentally overvalued. With an estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 12.8, Barrick continues to trade at a discount compared to peers such as Newmont. This valuation gap indicates the market may not have fully priced in the company's improved operational standing, particularly following the resolution of its dispute in Mali at the end of 2025.

The technical picture reinforces the strength, with shares trading steadily above their 20- and 50-day moving averages. The achievement of new multi-year highs confirms the robustness of the current uptrend, putting the psychologically significant $50 level within sight for bullish investors.