Analyst Report Highlights Significant Upside for Rock Tech Lithium Shares

Rock Tech Lithium CA77273P2017

A fresh research note from First Berlin Equity Research has provided a substantial vote of confidence for Rock Tech Lithium, outlining a considerable price target increase for the company's stock. The analysis points to a combination of project-specific strengths and a shifting macro environment for lithium as key drivers, despite recent share price weakness.

The firm's analyst, Simon Scholes, has initiated coverage with a "Buy" recommendation, attaching a 12-month price target of 2.40 Canadian dollars. Based on recent trading levels, this target implies a potential upside of approximately 243 percent.

Central to this optimistic outlook is a projected supply gap within the European market. Research cited in the report forecasts that European demand for lithium hydroxide (LiOH) will surge by 270 percent between 2024 and 2030, reaching an estimated 338,000 tonnes annually. This demand trajectory aligns closely with Rock Tech's own production ramp-up schedule, forming a core pillar of the investment thesis.

The Cornerstone: The Fully Permitted Guben Converter

At the heart of the investment case is the company's Guben Converter Project located in Germany. The facility has received all necessary permits and is designed for an annual production capacity of 24,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium hydroxide.

A significant de-risking factor is a firm, binding offtake agreement already in place with automotive giant Mercedes-Benz. This contract secures a portion of future output and, from the analysts' perspective, greatly enhances project predictability. Furthermore, the report highlights the project's competitive operating costs, which are estimated to be only about 8 percent above the lowest industry quartile, using Vulcan Energy as a benchmark.

Favorable Regulatory Tailwinds in Europe

The project has also gained strategic recognition from European regulators. In March 2025, the Guben facility was designated a "Strategic Project" under the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA).

This classification is more than symbolic; it provides tangible benefits for project financing. The status positions Guben as a strong candidate for capital from the RESourceEU funding pool, which holds approximately 3 billion euros. First Berlin anticipates a positive Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2026, an event the analysts believe could serve as a major catalyst for the share price.

Macro Backdrop: Lithium Prices Show Strength

These company-specific developments coincide with an improving market environment for lithium. On December 22, 2025, lithium carbonate futures reached an 18-month high of around $14,060 per tonne. This rally is attributed to supply risks emerging from China, including plans to cancel 27 mining concessions in the Yichun region starting in 2026 and the ongoing suspension of CATL's Jianxiawo mine.

This firmer pricing landscape benefits both current producers and future suppliers of lithium chemicals—a factor integrated into the analysts' positive assessment.

Key Data Points at a Glance

• Analyst Rating: Buy (First Berlin Equity Research)
• Price Target: 2.40 CAD
• Implied Upside: ~ +243%
• Planned Guben Capacity: 24,000 tonnes of LiOH per year
• Key Partner: Mercedes-Benz (binding offtake agreement)
• Regulatory Status: EU Strategic Project (CRMA)

Despite this bullish analysis, the stock remains under pressure. Shares recently closed at 0.43 euros, trading roughly 55 percent below their 52-week high of 0.96 euros and down approximately 41 percent since the start of the year.

Conclusion: Clear Catalysts Ahead

The positive analyst report rests on three foundational elements: a fully permitted European asset, a blue-chip industrial partner, and a recovering lithium price environment. The path forward now hinges on Rock Tech's ability to execute on key milestones, particularly securing full project financing and achieving a positive FID for Guben in 2026. Successfully adhering to the projected timeline would validate the current valuation, while any delays or setbacks would likely constrain the stock's near-term potential.