UBS Maps Silver's Path to $80 by 2027 While New Delhi and Refiners Test the Market's Nerve

UBS forecasts silver at $80 an ounce by September 2027, while COMEX futures sit below the 200-day average and India weighs ending a GST exemption.

Silver traders have plenty to occupy them this week, and the metal's longer-term trajectory is drawing just as much attention as its near-term headaches. UBS sees the price climbing to $80 an ounce by September 2027, a call built on the direction of gold, steady demand from investors and industry, and modest growth in mine supply that leaves little room for inventories to swell.

The futures market, for its part, has yet to reflect that optimism. COMEX front-month silver settled at $60.71 an ounce on Friday, roughly 14% below its 200-day moving average of $70.83 — a chart picture that remains bruised even after a tentative bounce in Asian trading at the start of the week.

Refiners Run Behind, but Bars Keep Moving

On the physical side, processing is not keeping pace with the paperwork. Josh Phair, chief executive of Scottsdale Mint, said on September 28 that silver refining is running three to four months behind depending on the material being delivered. Phair was careful to draw a line between that backlog and any broader narrative of scarcity: refined metal remains readily available within the United States. The delays are friction inside smelters' internal workflows, not a confirmed global mining shortfall — a distinction that matters because industrial users' access to bars is not in question.

India Weighs the End of a Tax Holiday

Regulatory risk is building in Asia. On Wednesday, India's GST Council will debate scrapping a long-standing exemption that has shielded banks and state-nominated agencies from the 3% integrated goods and services tax on gold, silver and platinum imports since 2017. Removing the carve-out would put those institutions on the same footing as private trading venues.

New Delhi's aim is to stem the drain on foreign-exchange reserves. For the physical silver market, the discussion adds another headwind from one of the world's key demand regions. India already raised silver import duties sharply in May, from 6% to 15%. The impact shows in the trade data: between April and August, Indian silver imports shrank 8.81% to $1.74 billion. Industry observers caution that fresh levies would lift banks' funding costs, with those expenses ultimately passed down to fabricators and end customers.

A Week of Losses, and a Macro Backdrop in Flux

Those regulatory hurdles land in an already restive market. Silver shed more than 6% on the futures market last week, pressured by profit-taking, a firmer dollar and geopolitical friction. Saudi-backed forces in Yemen launched an offensive against the Houthi militia, while stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran further soured risk appetite.

At the same time, traders are still digesting the Federal Reserve's changed policy stance. The US central bank raised its benchmark rate a little over three weeks ago, but weaker-than-expected US employment data have since pared back the odds of an immediate follow-up move in October. On Friday, the payroll report showed just 29,000 jobs created, and Reuters reported that Treasury yields and the dollar came under mild selling pressure in response. Futures markets continue to price a further tightening by December as the dominant scenario.

The interest-rate backdrop is central for precious metals, since non-yielding assets gain relative appeal when capital-market returns decline. Whether that turns into a lasting shift depends heavily on the Fed, whose next rate decision is scheduled for October 28. Until then, rate expectations are likely to set the tempo across metals markets.

Two Dates Circle the Calendar

Investors also have Wednesday's release of the minutes from the Fed's last meeting to look forward to, which should offer fresh clues on the central bank's policy path. Combined with India's tax decision the same day, the midweek window could prove decisive for sentiment. So long as it remains unclear whether New Delhi will further tighten access for large importers, silver lacks a dependable demand impulse from overseas — leaving the $60 level to fend for itself.