Thyssenkrupp's Analyst Fan Club Grows Louder as Breakup Momentum Builds
Published on 08/30/2026 at 18:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The chorus of bullish calls on Thyssenkrupp is getting harder to ignore. Within the space of a week, three major banks have lifted their price targets on the German industrial conglomerate, with the DZ Bank going a step further by upgrading the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" on 21 August and raising its fair value from €11 to €16.
That upgrade came with a specific rationale. Analyst Dirk Schlamp pointed to the increased value of the group's stake in naval subsidiary TKMS and its retained interest in TK Elevator — both central pillars of the sum-of-the-parts valuation that analysts are currently recalibrating. The Bank of America had fired the opening salvo a day earlier, lifting its target from €19 to €22 while reaffirming a buy recommendation, citing EBITDA potential of up to €1.5 billion at the steel division that new EU import quotas could unlock. Citigroup rounded out the wave on the same day as the DZ Bank, raising its target to €20 with a "Buy" rating intact.
The market's response was telling. The stock touched roughly €15 on Friday — a five-year high — before closing the week at €14.67, still 3.4 percent shy of the 52-week peak of €15.18 reached on 28 August. Friday's session itself ended 1.2 percent lower, but that did little to dent the broader picture: the shares have climbed 9.2 percent over the week and 16.8 percent since the spin-off of the materials division tk accelis was announced just over three weeks ago. The quarterly results published around two weeks earlier, featuring higher revenue and improved adjusted EBIT, had already added 10.0 percent to the share price.
Steel Sector Rally Adds Fuel
The positive momentum got an extra boost mid-week from an unexpected corner. European steel stocks, including Salzgitter and ArcelorMittal, rallied after reports that Chinese steel production had fallen 7 percent within ten days. For a market fretting about global oversupply, that data point offered hope that European producers could benefit disproportionately from any easing of the supply glut.
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A Defining Date on the Horizon
All eyes are now on 28 September, when Thyssenkrupp has scheduled a dedicated capital markets day for its Steel Europe division. Market participants view the event as a potential launchpad for a partial IPO of the steel business — a move that would mark a new chapter in the group's restructuring, following the collapse of Daniel K?etínský's EP Group entry in 2025 that left Steel Europe fully under the holding's umbrella.
The broader transformation under CEO Miguel López's "ACES 2030" strategy is advancing on multiple fronts. TKMS is progressing toward independence with a record order book, while the tk accelis separation is slated for operational completion at the end of October.
Not All Sunshine
The bull case, however, is not without its clouds. The financing of the multibillion-euro green steel plant project remains unresolved, though Reuters has reported advanced talks. At subsidiary Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the EBIT forecast was cut around two weeks ago following a strategic retreat from SOEC stack plans, with higher losses in the high-temperature electrolysis segment now anticipated. Berenberg kept its "Hold" rating on Nucera at a €9 target on 25 August.
The divergence in analyst thinking is also worth noting. While Deutsche Bank and Jefferies had already maintained buy ratings before the latest wave of upgrades, JPMorgan has stuck with a neutral stance. The spread of recent price targets — from €16 to €22 — underscores that even among the more optimistic houses, there is no consensus on fair value.
A Stock in Overdrive
The chart tells its own story. Thyssenkrupp shares have gained 57 percent since the start of the year and 61 percent over the past twelve months, placing it among the standout performers in Germany's steel and industrial sector. The stock currently trades roughly 20 percent above its 50-day moving average of €12.20, a sign of a firmly entrenched short-term uptrend.
Whether that trend persists after the late-September capital markets day will likely hinge on the concreteness of the Steel Europe plans. For now, the combination of operational improvement, a leaner corporate structure, and a fresh wave of analyst endorsements has given investors plenty of reasons to stay engaged — even if the path ahead retains its share of potholes.
