SpaceX's Analyst Divide Widens to $660 as Lock-Up Fears Give Way to AI Monetization Debate

SpaceX shares rally post lock-up despite bearish targets; analysts split on AI-driven profit speed, with price targets ranging from $140 to $800.

The gap between Wall Street's most bullish and most cautious calls on SpaceX has never been wider. Raymond James stands at $800 per share, while Piper Sandler sees just $140 — a chasm of $660 that encapsulates the central question hanging over the stock: how quickly can the company's massive artificial-intelligence investments translate into durable profits?

The divergent views emerged after a turbulent stretch that saw SpaceX shares stage a sharp recovery despite the release of hundreds of millions of shares from insider lock-up restrictions. The stock closed Friday at €115.14 in German trading, up 15.66 percent on the day and 15.84 percent for the week. Over 30 days, however, the shares remain 9.48 percent lower, and they still sit roughly 41 percent below the 52-week high of €194.46 reached in June.

A Lock-Up That Never Delivered Its Threat

The recent rally traces back to August 6, when a lock-up period covering approximately 911.5 million insider shares expired. The freely tradable float jumped 143 percent to 1.55 billion shares, a development many market participants had expected to trigger a sell-off. Instead, the stock climbed roughly 23 percent over the following two trading sessions, with more than 255 million shares changing hands on the day after the release — the heaviest volume since the stock's first week of trading following its June IPO.

Historical data helps explain the counterintuitive response. Studies of lock-up expirations spanning four decades show the average price reaction on such dates is just minus 1.5 percent, largely because markets tend to price in the additional supply well in advance. The pattern held true here, and short sellers bore the brunt of the surprise. Short interest stood at 36 percent of the float as of last Wednesday, according to S3 Partners LLC data cited by Bloomberg, with bears sitting on paper gains exceeding $9 billion at that point. The subsequent squeeze has likely eroded those positions considerably.

A second lock-up tranche arrives on August 20, freeing another seven percent of shares, with additional releases scheduled through December 8. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale reaffirmed his "Strong Buy" rating and $800 price target on Friday — the highest on the Street — in response to SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company, delivered just over a week earlier. Argus also raised its stance the same day, citing faster-than-expected amortization of AI investments as cloud contracts and AI revenue outpace projections.

The Bull Case: AI Growth and a Fortress Balance Sheet

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sees substantial upside from current levels. He reiterated an "Overweight" rating with a $300 target, representing a 125 percent premium to Friday's US closing price of $133.11. Jonas argues the AI business accounts for more than half of SpaceX's fair value, pointing to a $100 billion cash reserve and a $47.5 billion order backlog.

JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth lifted his target from $225 to $240, citing agreements with Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI, plus a new unnamed customer with a contract valued at $6.7 billion. JPMorgan, Bank of America and Mizuho all maintain buy ratings with targets ranging from $200 to $240. Goldman Sachs rates the stock "Buy" with a $220 target — a 65 percent upside — and notably compared SpaceX favorably to Palantir, which it rates only neutral. Other positive voices include Argus Research ($160), Wells Fargo ($215), Cantor Fitzgerald ($246) and Needham ($250). The consensus across 31 analyst ratings sits at $229.54, with individual targets spanning $75 to $800.

The fundamental picture lends some support to the optimism. Second-quarter revenue surged 92 percent year over year to $7.81 billion, though the company still posted a net loss of $541 million. The AI segment grew 247 percent to $2.56 billion in revenue, but remains operationally loss-making to the tune of $1.3 billion. Starlink, by contrast, delivered $1.66 billion in operating profit on twelve million subscribers.

Adding to the narrative, SpaceX and Tesla confirmed Sunday their joint Terafab project: a chip fabrication facility spanning roughly 100 million square feet in Grimes County, Texas. The first phase carries a $16.8 billion price tag, targeting more than one terawatt of computing power annually, with Intel handling manufacturing using its 14A process. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has already approved the associated tax agreements after two affected school districts signed off, though formal signing is still required before construction begins.

The Bear Case: Capital Intensity and Valuation

Piper Sandler remains the outlier, cutting its target to $140 with a neutral rating. The firm cites the growing number of tradable shares, higher capital expenditure expectations for 2027, and uncertainty around long-term demand for AI cloud services.

Skeptics point to a sobering set of numbers. SpaceX needs at least $400 billion in investment through 2028 to hit its targeted 20 gigawatts of AI computing capacity. Second-quarter capital expenditures already reached $18.4 billion — a 550 percent increase year over year. At roughly 17 times current-year revenue, the valuation leaves little room for execution missteps.

What's Next: Starship Test and a Second Lock-Up Wave

Two events loom large in the coming weeks. On August 12, a second lock-up tranche of up to 319 million shares becomes tradable, with further releases continuing until the full expiration of the 180-day restriction period in early December, when as many as 5.33 billion shares could be in play. A separate, extended lock-up for CEO Elon Musk and select other shareholders runs through June 2027.

Musk has also announced that SpaceX aims to launch its next Starship test flight this month. Pending regulatory approval, the mission would attempt to catch the rocket's upper stage with the launch tower for the first time — a technical milestone Musk frames as evidence of rapidly increasing launch cadence.

The debate between Raymond James's $800 target and Piper Sandler's $140 ultimately hinges on a single question: whether SpaceX's AI cloud business can monetize quickly enough to justify the billions being poured into it. The market's verdict so far — a stock still well below its highs, but resilient in the face of a historic share unlock — suggests investors are waiting for proof.