Sivers Semiconductors: A Swedish Chipmaker Caught Between a $1.2 Billion Promise and a Wall of Skepticism

Sivers Semiconductors shares drop 38% from 50-day average amid short seller changes and Q2 loss, but $1.2B pipeline fuels bull case.

The arithmetic of Sivers Semiconductors' current predicament is brutally simple on the surface: the stock has shed roughly a third of its value in the span of a fortnight, short sellers are rotating in and out of positions with unusual speed, and a major shareholder may have breached disclosure rules. Beneath that surface, however, lies a more layered story — one in which a company's long-term ambitions are being priced against its short-term operational pain.

The Stockholm-listed chipmaker closed Friday at EUR 2.44 after a single-day slide of 15 percent, bringing the seven-day decline to 17 percent. The shares now trade 38 percent below their 50-day average of EUR 3.94, and the annualized 30-day volatility stands at a head-spinning 169 percent. For context, the stock has lost 36.3 percent since investor Bootstrap exercised all its remaining warrants roughly two weeks ago, and 33.6 percent since the company unveiled its development partnership with SemiNex for next-generation light sources targeting AI data centers.

The Short-Seller Carousel

Adding to the turbulence is a notable reshuffling among institutional bears. On August 18, Arrowstreet Capital appeared for the first time as a disclosed short seller in Sivers, while D.E. Shaw simultaneously dropped off the list. Two days later, Citadel Securities also vanished from the register of open short positions — a striking reversal, given that the trading giant had only recently rebuilt a position above the 0.5 percent disclosure threshold after trimming it below that level roughly a week earlier.

With D.E. Shaw and Citadel Securities both re-entering as disclosed short sellers last Monday, total short interest climbed to 4.72 percent of share capital. The timing of their return coincided with the release of the company's second-quarter report, which provided fresh ammunition for the bears.

A Quarter That Gave the Bears Their Opening

The numbers were undeniably weak. Net sales fell 12 percent year-on-year to SEK 53.8 million in the second quarter, while the net loss widened from SEK 50.6 million to SEK 115.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA deteriorated to minus SEK 35.5 million from minus SEK 20.9 million in the comparable period.

Yet buried within those figures is an accounting quirk that deserves attention. The company's extraordinary share-price rally during the reporting period — from SEK 10.71 to SEK 63.15 — triggered a non-cash payroll tax liability of SEK 42.9 million, a bookkeeping consequence of past gains that further depressed the operating result. This is a mechanical, balance-sheet-driven charge, not a reflection of deteriorating business fundamentals.

CEO Vickram Vathulya has framed the weak quarter as a deliberate strategic choice. In an interview, he explained that the company is deliberately shifting resources away from customer-specific development contracts toward production ramps, sacrificing near-term revenue in the process. He has pointed to the fourth quarter of 2026 as the anticipated inflection point for sales.

The Bull Case That Refuses to Die

Against the gloomy near-term metrics stands a dramatically improved pipeline. The company pegged its total business opportunities for July 2026 at $1.2 billion — a 268 percent increase compared with year-end 2025. It also secured a production order from ALL.SPACE worth $8.2 million for Ka-band beamforming chips.

On the balance-sheet front, lender Bootstrap Europe converted a $12 million loan entirely into equity and exercised all remaining warrants — a move that strengthens the company's financial position even as it dilutes existing shareholders. The warrant exercise alone added 1.6 million new common shares.

Questions of Ownership and Disclosure

The most recent complication involves a Swedish media report from Affärsvärlden on August 18 suggesting that a significant shareholder may have sold shares without proper disclosure. Such an alleged reporting violation carries particular weight at a company already wrestling with acute investor nervousness.

Automated assessment models reflect the deeply divided outlook. One AI-driven scoring system recently assigned a neutral rating, putting the probability of outperformance against the European market at just under 50 percent, while a quantitative rating system flagged the company's financial health as weak following the quarterly report.

A Market Awaiting Proof

The technical picture offers little clarity: the relative strength index sits at 37.2, suggesting the stock is not yet in oversold territory. With unresolved questions about ownership structure, a constantly shifting roster of short sellers, and a fragile news flow, the near-term path appears treacherous.

The next meaningful test comes on November 26, 2026, when the company is expected to publish its third-quarter report. That will be the moment when Vathulya's promised turnaround either gains credibility or loses it — and when investors will discover whether the gap between a $1.2 billion opportunity and a company losing SEK 115 million per quarter can finally begin to close.