Hensoldt's Order Book Swells 77% as Analysts Split on What the Numbers Are Worth

Hensoldt's first nine months of 2026 delivered the kind of order growth defence investors dream about — and a share price that went nowhere. The German sensor and electronics group pulled in EUR 3,564 million of new orders, a jump of 76.7%, while revenue climbed 21.3% to EUR 1,863 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose faster still, up 33.0% to EUR 281 million, outpacing the top line. Yet the stock closed yesterday at EUR 80.84, down 0.1%, as the positive read on the business failed to translate into a gain.

Eurofighter Radars and Puma Sights Drive the Intake

Reuters reported that Eurofighter radars and targeting systems for the Puma and Schakal platforms were the main engines behind the order surge. The backlog now stands at EUR 10,367 million. That order intake outpaced revenue by such a margin that the book-to-bill ratio should land at the top end of the previously guided range of roughly 1.5 to 2.0.

Guidance for the full year, firmed up yesterday, points to an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 19.0%. The revenue target was lifted to roughly EUR 2.8 billion — but that still sits below the analyst consensus of more than EUR 2.9 billion, a gap dpa-AFX flagged as one of the drags on the shares. The other was Rheinmetall's profit warning, which weighed on the wider defence sector.

Two Houses, Two Conclusions

The analyst community responded along familiar lines. Jefferies kept its "Buy" rating and EUR 98 price target, with analyst Ben Brown calling the 2026 revenue guidance conservative and pointing to the beat on both sales and adjusted EBITDA versus consensus. JPMorgan stayed at "Neutral" with an unchanged EUR 100 target; analyst David H. Perry likewise described revenue and EBITDA as better than expected. Exane BNP Paribas, meanwhile, nudged its target up from EUR 83 to EUR 85 today while holding its "Neutral" stance, according to media reports.

So the same set of figures produced a raise, a hold and a reaffirmation — a spread that says as much about valuation as about performance.

The Next Marker

Hensoldt's capital markets day in London on 10 November is the next confirmed date on the calendar, and it arrives with the order book at a record and the revenue guidance still trailing what the street had modelled. For now, the contracts are stacking up faster than the sales line, and the market is waiting to see how that gap closes.