Hensoldt's Order Book Swells 77% as Analysts Diverge on Valuation Ahead of London Capital Markets Day

Hensoldt's latest quarterly scorecard landed with a thud on the trading floor. The defence electronics group shed 3.8% on Friday, closing at €77.78, as a broad selloff in German equities — driven by a worldwide retreat in AI and semiconductor names, according to dpa-AFX — dragged the stock lower alongside its peers.

The Munich-based firm had plenty of good news to point to. Orders booked in the first nine months of 2026 surged 76.7% to €3.56 billion, while the order backlog stood at €10.4 billion. Revenue climbed 21.3% to €1.86 billion over the same stretch, and adjusted EBITDA rose 33.0% to €281 million.

Two Houses, Two Verdicts

Jefferies analyst Ben Brown reiterated a "Buy" rating on Thursday with a €98 price target, noting that both revenue and adjusted operating profit had beaten consensus expectations. Deutsche Bank Research followed on Friday, keeping its "Buy" call and a €105 target unchanged. A third assessment, also from Thursday, took a more cautious line — confirming a neutral rating with a €100.0 target.

Not everyone stayed bullish. LBBW cut its price target to €85 from €100 on Friday while maintaining a "Hold" rating, setting up a clear split in how the analyst community reads the same set of numbers.

Guidance Tightened at the Top

Alongside the nine-month figures, Hensoldt nudged its full-year revenue outlook to approximately €2.8 billion — matching the prior figure — and sharpened its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to around 19.0%, narrowing the earlier 18.5%–19.0% range.

Sector sentiment also weighed on the shares. dpa-AFX reported that Hensoldt gave up earlier gains on Thursday in the wake of a profit warning from Rheinmetall, which pulled the wider defence complex lower despite Hensoldt's solid quarterly performance and upgraded outlook.

Next on the calendar is Hensoldt's Capital Markets Day in London on 10 November 2026, where management will face investors eager to see whether the order momentum and margin pledge can hold up under closer scrutiny.