Gold Speculators Retreat as Ghana Halts Exports and ETF Demand Cools

Institutional gold bets fell to 120,318 net long contracts, ETF holdings slipped to 4,249 tons, and spot gold closed Friday at $4,144.04, down 3.4% on the week.

Institutional money is pulling back from gold futures just as supply-side disruptions emerge in West Africa, painting a mixed picture for the metal as it struggles to regain its footing.

Futures Positioning Drops to Late-July Low

Speculative investors trimmed their bullish bets on gold in the latest reporting period, according to weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Net long positions held by funds and asset managers on the COMEX fell to their lowest level since the end of July in the week through September 22, Reuters reported, as traders reduced wagers on rising prices.

In a subsequent CFTC snapshot for the period ending September 29, the net long overhang contracted by 7,071 contracts to 120,318 units. The retreat by institutional speculators comes amid a market still searching for direction, with rate and currency dynamics keeping a tight lid on commodity trading ranges.

Rate Pressure and Dollar Strength Weigh on Safe-Haven Appeal

The pullback reflects the uncertain interest-rate landscape in the United States. While softer economic data recently offered some relief in bond markets, elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a firm dollar have repeatedly capped larger price advances.

Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit, noted in media reports that gold could recover further in the near term if Treasury yields have indeed peaked. Analysts at DZ Bank pointed to the Middle East conflict and persistent inflation concerns as fundamental supports for the metal as a safe haven, while also flagging the headwind from the strong dollar.

ETF Flows Turn Negative After August Surge

On the physical demand side, exchange-traded fund flows have reversed course. Gold ETFs recorded outflows of 1.6 tons in the prior week, according to Reuters citing the World Gold Council, bringing total global holdings down to 4,249 tons. The fading interest from ETF investors removes a key pillar that had cushioned price declines in earlier phases.

That pullback follows a stronger August, when global physically backed gold ETFs attracted $18 billion in inflows, expanding total holdings by 121 tons to 4,189 tons, according to World Gold Council data.

Central Banks Remain a Structural Support

Official-sector buying continues to underpin the market. Goldman Sachs estimated global net central bank purchases at 44 tons for July and reaffirmed its price target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

In Ghana, central bank Governor Johnson Asiama said the monetary authority is prioritizing the rebuilding of foreign exchange reserves. Against that backdrop, state gold buyer GoldBod has suspended exports since August. The West African nation's gold reserves stood at 24.4 tons in June 2026, down from 33 tons a year earlier.

Asian Demand Softens Ahead of Holidays

Physical demand has also offered little support. Reuters reported noticeably weaker buying interest in the Chinese market ahead of the country's October 1–7 holidays. Local premiums over the global benchmark narrowed and fell back to zero by the end of the prior week.

Price Action

At the spot market, the fine ounce closed Friday at $4,144.04, a daily decline of 0.8%. Over the seven-day period, the loss totals 3.4%. The metal now trades 26% below its 52-week high of $5,598.58, set at the end of January.

Traders are now focused on the next CFTC positioning report, due October 9.