Bayer's Pipeline Progress Meets a Split Verdict on Profits

Two bullish broker notes landed on Bayer this week, and neither of them promises a smooth ride on the earnings line. UBS and JPMorgan both kept the stock on their buy lists, yet the pair diverge sharply on what the underlying numbers will look like when the German group reports on 3 November 2026.

UBS analyst Matthew Weston reaffirmed his buy call on Thursday with a price target of 62 euros. He acknowledged the well-documented softness in Bayer's agricultural division but argued that trends through 2026 and 2027 remain intact, leaning on the momentum in the pharmaceuticals business. The US approval of Asundexian stays a central plank of his thesis — a regulatory milestone still pending, not one already secured.

A day later, JPMorgan's Richard Vosser restated his overweight rating and a 61 euro target. His revenue forecast sits 2% above consensus, while his estimate for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation lands 6% below it. That gap is the crux of the story: a top-line beat, in his view, would not carry through to the operating result. Vosser also expects management to stand by its full-year guidance — an assumption rather than a confirmed fact, though one his firm treats as a source of confidence.

A regulatory step, not a green light

The concrete news came on 8 October, when the US Food and Drug Administration accepted Bayer's supplemental application for Finerenon in adults with chronic kidney disease who do not have diabetes. The filing draws on data from the Phase III FIND-CKD trial.

Acceptance is a procedural advance, not an approval decision. It moves the application forward for the proposed indication without granting marketing authorisation, and it does not alter the near-term revenue or profit picture. For investors, the Finerenon milestone adds a tangible data point to the positive read on the drug portfolio while leaving the operational risks elsewhere in the business untouched.

That distinction matters because the two brokers are effectively describing a company pulling in different directions. Pharmaceuticals are supplying the tailwind; agriculture is supplying the drag. Weston's optimism rests on holding firm to the longer-term trajectory despite the crop-science headwinds, while Vosser's numbers show revenue strength failing to translate into profit strength.

What November will settle

The next scheduled checkpoint is third-quarter results on 3 November 2026. The question then will be whether Bayer can confirm the combination its analysts have sketched out: momentum in medicines, pressure in agricultural chemicals, and a full-year outlook that holds together regardless.

Until the figures are published, both the revenue forecast above consensus and the EBITDA estimate below it remain projections. The reaffirmed price targets should not be read as an upgrade to business expectations, and the anticipated guidance confirmation is still an analyst's expectation. A step forward on Finerenon and two positive ratings do not, on their own, amount to higher operating profit forecasts.