Bank of America Lifts BP Profit Forecast 35% as Refining Margins and Debt Paydown Reshape the Quarter

BP shares climbed 3.1% on Friday to close at €7.39, pulling within a whisker of their 52-week high of €7.42, as a broad rally in crude prices and a sharply upgraded profit outlook from Bank of America combined to lift the British energy major.

The stock's advance came against a 3.7% jump in Brent, which Reuters attributed to persistent anxiety over global supply. Traders are fretting about geopolitical disruption in the Middle East and about deliveries from Russian refineries — twin concerns that pushed up futures and underpinned European energy equities across the board.

Analyst Upgrade Sets the Tone

Bank of America had already moved the needle on Wednesday, raising its third-quarter earnings estimate for BP by more than 35%. The analysts pointed to a stronger oil and gas trading book, fatter refining margins and a lighter tax burden as the drivers behind the revision.

Even so, the bank kept its "Underperform" rating on the stock, lifting its price target to 525 GBp from 510 GBp. The more bullish profit call, in other words, arrived alongside a cautious stance on the shares themselves.

Refining Margins Nearly Double

The upgrade rests on guidance BP issued in its third-quarter interim update. The company pencilled in a headline refining margin of $46.7 per barrel for the quarter, up sharply from $29.6 in the preceding three months. Reuters tied the improvement directly to oil supply disruptions stemming from the war in Iran.

That recovery in downstream operations provides a key prop for operating profit just as the company works through a heavy charge.

Debt Reduction in Sharp Focus

Alongside the margin guidance, BP forecast net debt of $13.5 billion to $14.5 billion at the end of the third quarter, down from $22.3 billion at the end of June. The prospect of faster deleveraging drew a positive reception in the market, with Reuters reporting that the shares outperformed the wider European energy sector after the figures landed.

Offsetting some of that optimism, BP flagged post-tax impairments of $3.0 billion to $4.5 billion for the quarter, concentrated in its gas business and in low-carbon transformation projects.

What Comes Next

Investors will get the full picture when BP publishes its complete third-quarter 2026 results before markets open on October 30, 2026. That report should show how far improved refining margins and the shrinking debt pile offset the impairment charges on the bottom line.

A second date matters for the longer view: BP has scheduled a strategy and outlook event in New York City on December 15, 2026, where management will lay out its direction for the years ahead.

Separately, Reuters reported that Meg O'Neill was unable to attend the World Petroleum Council Energy Congress in Riyadh on Monday because of travel disruptions. BP said it had made every effort to enable her participation in the conference.