Xiaomi's Twin-Track Push: Buybacks and EVs Battle a Brutal Stock Slide

Xiaomi delivered over 30,000 EVs in April, but shares fell 23% in 2025 amid margin pressure, a massive AI bet, and a steep 550,000-vehicle target for 2026.

The numbers coming out of Xiaomi tell two very different stories. On one hand, the company just delivered more than 30,000 electric vehicles in April — a monthly record that brings cumulative deliveries for the first four months to roughly 114,000 units, up in the low double digits year-on-year. On the other, the stock has shed about 23 percent since January and is hovering near its lowest point, despite a buyback blitz that has already topped last year's total.

The disconnect is widening by the week.

A Buyback Blitz That Isn't Working

Xiaomi poured 7.4 billion Hong Kong dollars into its own shares through April, surpassing the entire repurchase volume of the previous year. The market response has been deafeningly quiet — the stock kept sliding. That has put the spotlight squarely on management's strategy of chasing premium positioning while the share price heads in the opposite direction.

The premium push isn't without results. The company moved more than 13 million high-end smartphones last year, a 24 percent jump. But rising costs for memory chips and logistics are eating into margins, and a projected global market contraction threatens to blunt the impact of higher average selling prices.

The EV Math Gets Steeper

Xiaomi's automotive business is where the real drama is unfolding. April deliveries jumped sharply from March's roughly 21,400 units, driven by strong demand for the YU7 SUV and a steady ramp-up in production of the SU7 sedan. The company has been leaning into unusual transparency — publishing teardown videos and range tests — to build buyer confidence in a fiercely competitive market.

But the target for 2026 is 550,000 vehicles. To hit that, Xiaomi needs to average more than 52,000 deliveries a month from May through December. That's a steep acceleration from the current pace, and any stumble could put fresh pressure on a stock that closed the last trading session at around 29 Hong Kong dollars.

A high-performance variant of the YU7 — the GT — is expected to launch by the end of May, targeting the margin-rich premium segment. That may help, but the math remains daunting.

Governance Changes and AI Spending

Shareholders will gather in Beijing on June 2, 2026 for the annual general meeting. On the agenda: an overhaul of the company's internal regulations to align with current Hong Kong exchange rules, including provisions for virtual meetings and electronic voting. Investors will also vote on mandates for further buybacks and the potential issuance of Class B shares, moves designed to give management more financial flexibility.

Meanwhile, the company is committing 60 billion yuan to artificial intelligence over the next three years — a massive bet on the next wave of technology.

The Moment of Truth

All eyes are now on May 26, when Xiaomi's board presents first-quarter results. That report will reveal how the aggressive EV expansion is affecting overall profitability — and whether the company can balance volume growth with cost discipline. Of the 30 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it a buy, with an average price target near 44 Hong Kong dollars.

The export push into Europe, planned for 2027, depends on getting the economics right first. For now, Xiaomi is running a two-speed operation: record EV deliveries and a stock that can't catch a break.