Nebius Races to Scale as $20 Billion Infrastructure Bet Meets Governance Questions

Nebius Group reports 479% revenue surge to $529.8M in 2025, but flags material weaknesses in internal controls. Institutional interest grows as $20B capex plan targets 2026 revenue of $3B-$3.4B.

The numbers are staggering by any measure. Nebius Group posted revenue of $529.8 million for 2025, a 479 percent surge from the prior year’s $91 million. The fourth quarter alone delivered $227.7 million, up 547 percent year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $128.5 million in 2024 to a positive $59 million, powered by capacity that was repeatedly sold out in the second half of the year.

But the annual report that revealed this hypergrowth also exposed cracks beneath the surface. Management flagged two material weaknesses in internal controls — one tied to property and equipment accounting, another to revenue recognition at the TripleTen education platform. The company attributed the deficiencies to rapid expansion and complexity following a 2023 divestiture. Two of three prior weaknesses have been remediated, with the remaining fix targeted for completion by the end of 2026.

Until those controls are fully effective, the risk of undetected reporting errors lingers — an uncomfortable reality for a company simultaneously executing one of the most aggressive capacity build-outs in the AI sector. Nebius has already secured power purchase agreements for more than 2 gigawatts, with plans to exceed 3 gigawatts by year-end 2026.

Institutional Interest Heats Up

The governance concerns haven’t deterred institutional money. Pictet Asset Management built a new position in Nebius on April 30, signaling growing appetite among large asset managers for the so-called "neocloud" segment — specialized providers of high-performance data centers for AI workloads, distinct from hyperscalers like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft Azure.

Nebius’s strategy centers on GPU-intensive applications and rapid deployment of cutting-edge hardware, including Nvidia’s Blackwell platform and the forthcoming Rubin architecture. The approach has resonated: the company’s contracted backlog has swelled to roughly $46 billion, providing concrete demand visibility for its ambitious investment program.

Two flagship projects form the operational backbone. In Lappeenranta, Finland, a 310-megawatt AI factory is under construction — one of Europe’s largest dedicated AI data centers, with operations slated to begin in 2027. In Independence, Missouri, Nebius recently secured approval for a gigawatt-scale facility. Nine new data centers are in the pipeline overall.

The $20 Billion Question

Management’s 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion — a three-to-sixfold increase from 2025 levels. That trajectory depends on flawless execution of a capital expenditure plan totaling $16 billion to $20 billion this year, partially funded by a $4.34 billion convertible bond.

The stock closed at $138.23 on the last trading day before a holiday, down 2.1 percent, and remains below its monthly all-time high of $168.71. Still, it has gained roughly 87 percent since the start of the year and trades above key moving averages, suggesting the medium-term trend remains intact.

Power and Governance Dynamics

A separate governance issue looms alongside the control weaknesses. Founder Arkady Volozh’s family trust holds Class B shares representing approximately 52 percent of voting power, despite an economic stake of only about 11 percent. Combined with the CEO, directors and other insiders, the founder’s camp controls roughly 59 percent of votes. That structure qualifies Nebius as a "controlled company" under Nasdaq rules, exempting it from certain corporate governance requirements.

The First Test Arrives May 13

All eyes now turn to May 13, 2026, when Nebius reports first-quarter results before the market open, followed by a conference call at 14:00 Central European Time. It will be the first real check on whether the full-year guidance is achievable — and whether the market’s optimism, already priced into a stock trading near $141, is justified.

The critical variable is execution speed: how quickly Nebius can convert its massive infrastructure pipeline into revenue. With institutional investors now circling and $46 billion in contracted demand on the books, the company has the raw ingredients for a breakout year. Whether the internal controls and governance structure can keep pace with that ambition is the question that will define the stock’s next chapter.