Wall Street Divided on Rigetti Computing’s Valuation

Rigetti US76655K1034

Analysts are deeply split in their assessment of quantum computing pioneer Rigetti Computing, highlighting the inherent difficulty in valuing a company whose commercial success lies years in the future. The stark divergence in price targets underscores the high-risk, high-reward nature of investing in this emerging technology sector.

The analyst community offers no consensus. Initiating coverage on December 11, 2025, Mizuho stands as the most bullish, issuing an "Outperform" rating and a price target of $50. In sharp contrast, Jefferies Financial maintains a cautious "Hold" recommendation with a target of just $30. Aggregating ten analyst ratings, the average stance is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of seven "Buy" ratings, two "Hold" ratings, and one "Sell." The average price target derived from this group is $29.30. The enormous $20 gap between the high and low estimates reflects the uncertainty surrounding early-stage quantum computing firms.

Financial Metrics and Market Performance

From a valuation perspective, Rigetti trades at a significant premium. Its price-to-book ratio of 19.9 far exceeds the industry average of 3.6 and the peer group average of 6.8. The company's Q3 2025 financial results illustrated the ongoing challenge of scaling revenue while funding research. Revenue of $1.95 million represented an 18.1% year-over-year decline and missed the $2.17 million consensus estimate. The company reported an operational loss of $20.5 million, though its adjusted earnings per share of -$0.03 surpassed expectations.

The stock has been characterized by extreme volatility throughout 2025, trading in a range from $4.28 to $58.15—a swing of over 1,200%. Despite a year-to-date gain of approximately 201%, the shares have retreated about 21% over the past 90 days. As of December 18, 2025, the stock closed at $22.82, notably below its 50-day moving average of $33.31. Trading volume on that date was 34 million shares, 52% below the daily average.

Technology Roadmap Provides the Bull Case

The primary investment thesis for Rigetti rests on its ambitious technological milestones. The company aims to demonstrate a system with over 100 qubits and 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025. This is to be followed by a 150+ qubit system by late 2026 and scaling to over 1,000 qubits by 2027. Strategic partnerships with industry leader NVIDIA and various academic institutions are intended to accelerate this development path.

With a cash position of roughly $600 million, the company has a substantial runway. However, most market observers do not anticipate the company reaching profitability before 2030. The central question for investors remains whether Rigetti can commercialize its technology swiftly enough to justify its current valuation. The next quarterly report, scheduled for March 2026, may offer further clues.