Vanguard All-World ETF Reaches New High as Warsh Era Begins and Markets Brace for Data Volley

The Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF closes at €161.18, a 52-week high, as markets eye new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, US GDP/PCE data, and major tech earnings.

The Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF has pushed into uncharted territory, closing at €161.18 on Xetra and notching a fresh 52-week high. Yet the record — representing a year-to-date gain of more than 10% — arrives in a week packed with crosscurrents that could test the rally’s staying power. A new Federal Reserve chairman, a double-barrelled release of US GDP and inflation data, and a handful of high-profile tech earnings reports have all converged.

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, replacing Jerome Powell at a moment when the rate outlook is anything but settled. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate in a 3.5%–3.75% range this year after three cuts in 2025, and markets now price in the possibility of hikes early next year. Warsh’s own signals are mixed: he argued for tighter policy during his first stint on the Fed board from 2006 to 2011, but more recently has suggested that artificial intelligence could keep inflation in check and boost productivity, giving the Fed room to ease. His first Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set for June 16–17, making every public comment between now and then a potential catalyst for global equities.

Thursday, May 28, will serve as a critical test. The second estimate of US first-quarter GDP and the April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — are both due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. With inflation having held above the central bank’s 2% target for more than five years, exacerbated by higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict, the readings will directly shape expectations for Warsh’s first rate decision. A preliminary taste comes Tuesday with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which slumped to a record-low 44.8 in May, as rising living costs continue to weigh on households.

On the corporate side, the US earnings season is winding down, but three major tech names still report this week. Marvell Technology, Salesforce, and Snowflake all deliver results on Tuesday, with Marvell viewed as a key bellwether for AI semiconductor demand. The stakes are high for the Vanguard fund because information technology makes up roughly a quarter of the FTSE All-World Index, and the top three holdings — Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia — account for a substantial share of its movement. So far, the earnings backdrop looks robust: 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and 84% have beaten earnings estimates, well above the five-year average of 78% and the ten-year average of 76%. FactSet pegs the aggregate net profit margin for the index at 13.4%, the highest since records began in 2009.

Regional signals within the ETF’s portfolio, which spans about 4,200 stocks across more than 45 countries, remain sharply divergent. Japan, the fund’s second-largest country weight after the US, surprised to the upside: first-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 2.1%, comfortably above the consensus forecast of 1.7%. The Nikkei 225 advanced 3.14% last week. Europe, by contrast, is struggling. The European Commission cut its 2026 growth forecast for the eurozone to 0.9%, citing an energy shock and geopolitical dislocation, and raised its inflation projection to 3.0%. China continues to lag — disappointing April activity data sent the CSI 300 down 0.30% and the Hang Seng 1.37% lower.

The AI-driven earnings momentum that has powered US markets is broadening out. The gap between expected profit growth for the “Magnificent Seven” and the rest of the S&P 500 has narrowed from 31 percentage points in 2024 to just 3 points for 2027, signalling that the technology theme is spreading beyond the megacaps. Seven of nine S&P 500 sectors are now reporting double-digit earnings growth, with communication services, information technology, consumer discretionary, and materials leading the pack. The index’s overall earnings are up roughly 28% year on year, and analysts expect margins to widen further to 14.1% in the second quarter and 14.6% later in the year.

The VWCE’s own performance reflects this strong market backdrop. The fund delivered a one-year return of 30.80% after costs through the end of April, tracking the FTSE All-World Index within a whisker (30.87%). Its three-year annualised return stands at 19.76%. With €38.4 billion in assets under management and an annual expense ratio of just 0.19%, the ETF remains a heavyweight among global equity index funds. It covers roughly 90% of world market capitalisation across 48 developed and emerging markets.

Yet for all its breadth, the fund cannot escape the dominant influence of Wall Street and its technology giants. This week’s double feature — a trio of AI-related earnings followed by the twin US data releases — will determine whether the record high can hold. The new Fed chair has yet to reveal his hand, and markets are watching every signal.