Thyssenkrupp: Analyst Upgrades and Packaging Innovation Collide as Steel Sale Looms

Thyssenkrupp shares surge 28% from March lows as Deutsche Bank upgrades to Buy; packaging steel innovations at Metpack 2026 offset Jindal sale overhang.

Thyssenkrupp has found itself at an inflection point where operational ingenuity and corporate uncertainty are pulling the share price in opposite directions. While the conglomerate prepares to showcase cutting-edge packaging steel at next month's Metpack trade fair, the unresolved sale of its steel division to Jindal Steel International continues to cast a long shadow over investor sentiment.

The stock has staged a remarkable recovery from its March lows. After touching a 52-week trough of €7.15, the shares have clawed back to €10.20 as of Friday's close — a gain of roughly 7% on the day and nearly 28% over the past 30 days. That rebound has caught the attention of analysts who see value where others see risk.

Deutsche Bank has been the most emphatic, upgrading Thyssenkrupp from "Hold" to "Buy" and lifting its price target from €11.00 to €14.50. Analyst Bastian Synagowitz argues that the recent sell-off — driven by geopolitical headwinds and the prolonged Jindal negotiations — has created an attractive entry point. AlphaValue/Baader Europe followed suit, reaffirming its "Buy" rating while nudging its target up to €12.50. Jefferies remains in the bull camp with a €13.00 target. The consensus across nine analysts now sits at a median of €11.93.

The timing of these upgrades is no accident. On May 12, Thyssenkrupp will publish its second-quarter results for fiscal 2026 — a report that will test whether operational momentum can justify the higher price targets. The company's electrolysis spin-off, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, will also release its quarterly numbers on the same day, adding another data point for investors to digest.

Yet beneath the macro drama, Thyssenkrupp Rasselstein — Germany's sole producer of tinplate — is quietly demonstrating that the packaging steel business still has plenty of life. At the Metpack 2026 trade fair starting May 5 in Essen, the company will unveil two new steel grades with tangible commercial applications.

Rasselstein CUP targets valve discs in aerosol cans, combining high formability with enhanced strength. Rasselstein D&I Solid represents an evolution for two-piece food cans, promising material savings of up to 10%. In an environment where packaging manufacturers are squeezing every cent from raw material costs, that efficiency gain could be a powerful selling point.

The digital centerpiece at the booth is a tool called the "Canculator." Using finite-element methods and a machine-learning model, it calculates achievable thickness reductions in seconds. Users can adjust parameters on the fly — a capability that could meaningfully accelerate customer development cycles.

Sustainability is also front and center. Thyssenkrupp is marketing tinplate made from CO?-reduced bluemint® steel, positioning it as a solution for clients chasing their own climate targets. CEO Clarissa Odewald described Metpack as the "ideal environment" to introduce new products and solutions.

The stock currently trades around €10.09, a far cry from the analyst target range of €8.30 to €15.00. The wide spread reflects the binary nature of the Jindal overhang. Until the steel unit sale is resolved — one way or another — every headline from that front will move the shares. The Metpack innovations show that the packaging steel franchise is innovating and competing. But the conglomerate's fate remains tied to a deal that has yet to close.