SpaceX Analyst Targets Span $63 to $800 as Starship Abort Deepens a $1 Trillion Rout

SpaceX shares sink over 44% from June peak after Starship test abort, with looming lock-up expiry and deep analyst division over valuation. Market cap drops $1 trillion.

A confluence of technical failure, looming insider stock sales, and a widening schism among Wall Street analysts has knocked SpaceX’s publicly traded shares more than 44% below their June peak. The stock closed at €108.40 on Friday, down 5.39% on the day and bringing the 30-day loss to nearly 35%. At €107.34, the equity marked a fresh 52-week low on July 17, leaving the company’s market capitalisation at roughly $1.63 trillion — a $1 trillion evaporation from the all-time high of $2.64 trillion set on June 16.

The immediate catalyst was Thursday’s aborted Starship test flight. Four of the 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster failed to ignite seconds before liftoff, triggering an automatic shutdown. SpaceX quickly removed the upper stage and is replacing two engines; the next attempt is scheduled for Monday, July 20. It was the thirteenth test of the Starship system and the second using the V3 version, following a failed booster landing in May. Overall, just seven of twelve prior flights have succeeded, a 58% track record that contrasts sharply with the flawless Falcon 9 record.

Yet the abort alone does not explain the severity of the sell-off. A far larger overhang is the impending lock-up expiry. When SpaceX reports second-quarter earnings in early August, roughly 900 million shares — currently restricted — will become eligible for trading. The market has already begun pricing in that flood of supply, a dynamic that has attracted short sellers in droves. Short interest in the free float has climbed to around 30%, and bears have booked an estimated $4 billion in profits on paper. The bearish sentiment is also visible in the bond market: the yield on SpaceX’s 30-year note has risen from 6.7% to 7.4%, pushing the price down to 91% of par, while credit-default swaps have widened to 158 basis points.

Against this backdrop, analysts are deeply divided over the stock’s true worth. Morningstar assigns a fair value of just $63 — more than 40% below Friday’s closing price of roughly $122 (converted from euros). MoffettNathanson rates the shares neutral with a $131 target. At the other extreme, Raymond James has a strong-buy recommendation and an $800 price objective. The consensus among the analysts surveyed sits at $235.34, with about 80% recommending a buy. Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers characterised the market’s reaction to the engine failure as acute but stopped short of calling it a fundamental shift.

The crux of the valuation debate rests on the Starlink business. The satellite-internet unit generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, an EBITDA margin of 63%, and more than 10 million subscribers. Optimists see it as a cash machine that will eventually fund Mars ambitions. Sceptics counter that SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion last year and that the stock still trades at roughly 100 times revenue even after the slide. Moreover, the Starship system is critical not only for Starlink’s expansion — the aborted test was meant to deploy 20 test satellites — but also for NASA’s Artemis IV lunar mission, targeted for 2028, where SpaceX faces competition from Blue Origin.

To make matters worse, Elon Musk has personally lost his trillionaire status on paper as the stock has tumbled from fourth to ninth place among the world’s most valuable listed companies. The next Starship test on July 20 will offer a fresh read on technical progress, but the lock-up expiry and the analyst schism suggest the volatility is far from over. Even a successful flight may not be enough to reverse a rout that has already erased more than a trillion dollars in market value.