Sivers Semiconductors: The GlobalFoundries Deal That Sent Shares Soaring 70% — and Left Redeye Unmoved

Sivers shares spike after silicon photonics pact with GlobalFoundries, but sole analyst keeps 6.20 SEK target amid weak Q1 earnings and a short-seller report.

On Tuesday, Sivers Semiconductors shares more than doubled in value on the back of a landmark deal with GlobalFoundries. By the end of the session, the stock had surged roughly 70% on Nasdaq Stockholm, briefly trading above 100 Swedish kronor — a year-to-date gain of more than 2,400%. Yet the only analyst firm covering the company kept its price target unchanged at 6.20 SEK, a fraction of the market price. The disconnect between investor euphoria and analyst caution has rarely been starker.

The partnership puts Sivers' laser arrays at the heart of GlobalFoundries' silicon photonics platform, targeting two architectures that are gaining traction in hyperscale data centers: co-packaged optics (CPO) and linear pluggable optics (LPO). The technology will also be integrated into GlobalFoundries' SCALE platform for next-generation optical subsystems. The addressable market is substantial — pluggable optics alone is expected to reach $25 billion by 2030, driven by surging bandwidth demand and the energy appetite of AI workloads. But the announcement contained no concrete details on contract value, binding volumes, exclusivity, or a specific revenue timeline, leaving analysts to assess the deal solely on strategic merit.

Sivers' sales chief Raymond Biagan framed the collaboration as a leadership move in silicon photonics innovation. The company's opportunity pipeline has grown 77% since the end of 2025 to $799 million, and management expects multiple product launches in 2027, with materially higher shipment volumes only after that point. However, the operational reality tells a different story. First-quarter 2026 net revenue fell 22% to 61.9 million Swedish kronor, with adjusted EBITDA of minus 13.8 million SEK, an operating loss of 41.5 million SEK, and operating cash flow of minus 49.2 million SEK. The company attributed the decline to delayed US defense budget releases stemming from the government shutdown in late 2025, as well as unfavorable currency headwinds.

The timing of the rally added an extra layer of complexity. Just one day earlier, on June 1, the short-selling firm Ningi Research published a report alleging questionable revenue recognition and hollow customer contracts. The stock had fallen 9.2% that day, and Rosen Law Firm subsequently announced an investigation into possible securities claims on behalf of shareholders. Sivers is also preparing for a dual listing on the Nasdaq New York, having restated its 2024 and 2025 financials under PCAOB standards — a process that revealed a higher net loss for 2025 than originally reported.

Redeye, the investment bank that covers Sivers under a commissioned research arrangement, reiterated its 6.20 SEK fair value after the rally. Analyst Jacob Benon told Dagens Industri that the price move was "extremely strong" but that the GlobalFoundries news did not alter the valuation case. The bank had already kept the target unchanged after the Q1 report, acknowledging the pipeline growth but emphasizing that the market is pricing in execution capacity at a scale not yet demonstrated in reported revenue.

The central question is whether the AI data center partnerships can translate into revenue, margin, and cash flow quickly enough to justify the current valuation. The GlobalFoundries deal strengthens Sivers' strategic narrative in silicon photonics, but without hard data on integration timelines, product ramps, or customer uptake, the gap between the stock price and Redeye's target — about 94% below Tuesday's peak — remains the defining feature of the Sivers Semiconductors story.