Sivers Semiconductors Q1 Setback May Be Temporary as $799M Pipeline and Index Inclusion Signal Turning Point

Sivers Semiconductors faces a short squeeze opportunity as index inclusion drives passive buying amid 77% pipeline growth and 22% revenue decline.

Sivers Semiconductors finds itself at a crossroads. The company posted a 22% decline in first-quarter revenue, yet its opportunity pipeline swelled to $799 million — a 77% jump since the start of the year. This disconnect between near-term results and forward momentum has put the stock in a peculiar spot: passive investors are about to pour in, while short sellers have piled on at levels not seen in months.

The shares closed May 29 at SEK 68.95, down 1.78% for the session. That modest decline belies a more dramatic undercurrent. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, roughly 17% of the free float was out on loan as of May 26 — a sharp spike from just 1.6% in early March. The elevated short interest now collides with mandatory buying from index funds.

Index entry triggers forced demand

Starting June 1, Sivers joins the OMX Stockholm Benchmark Index, and as of May 29 it was also added to MSCI’s Sweden Small-Cap Index. Both inclusions require tracking funds to adjust portfolios, creating a wave of technical buying. For a stock with such a high short interest, the squeeze potential is real, though the outcome will depend on how much of the passive flow has already been anticipated.

The company also completed a directed share issue in May, raising approximately SEK 125 million by issuing 8.62 million new common shares. The total share count now stands at 319,953,572. The proceeds are earmarked for expansion as Sivers ramps up its sales force, organizational capacity, and financial controls — infrastructure needed for a larger capital markets presence, including a potential dual listing on Nasdaq New York.

Q1 revenue weakens, but headwinds are short-term

Net revenue for the first quarter came in at SEK 61.9 million, down from SEK 78.9 million a year earlier. The adjusted EBITDA loss widened to SEK 13.8 million, a deterioration of SEK 7.8 million. The main culprits: a US government shutdown that delayed defense-related revenue, and adverse currency moves. The dollar weakened 14% against the Swedish krona year-over-year, while the pound fell 6%.

These are temporary drags. The underlying pipeline growth suggests that once government funding resumes and production launches arrive, revenue should accelerate. Sivers management continues to target 25-30% annual revenue growth, with profitability achievable by 2028.

AGM to reshape board and approve option plan

All eyes are on the annual general meeting scheduled for June 15. Shareholders will vote on a renewed board structure. Dr. Bami Bastani is proposed to remain chairman, with returning members Todd Thomson and Karin Raj. Two new candidates join: Joakim Nideborn, a former CFO of listed tech companies with a Nordic focus, as deputy chairman, and Helena Svancar, who brings over two decades of international leadership experience.

In addition, a new stock option program covering 7 million options will be put to a vote. If approved, it would dilute existing shareholders by roughly 2%.

Defense, datacom, and automotive drive the pipeline

A second-year contract under the US CHIPS Act has been secured for the EW-STAR electronic warfare program, a joint effort with BAE Systems, MIT Lincoln Lab, and Columbia University. Sivers also landed a development order from a major US defense contractor.

In datacom, Sivers is collaborating with Jabil on a pluggable 1.6T transceiver module aimed at AI data centers. The company has also released its Daybreak beamforming ICs for FR3 5G/6G applications to general availability, and signed a new development and production partnership with Tachyon Networks for 60 GHz fixed wireless access products, with production expected in 2026.

The automotive LiDAR programme for a major carmaker is on track for a fourth-quarter 2026 production start. Multiple product launches in 2027 will target AI data center lasers and satellite communications components.

Dual listing preparation and accounting revisions

Sivers has restated its consolidated financial statements for 2024 and 2025 to align with US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board standards. The adjustments include revenue reclassifications between periods, revised inventory valuations, updated fair value assumptions for share-based compensation, and write-downs on previously capitalised development costs. Management says the groundwork for a dual listing on Nasdaq New York is largely complete, with timing and structure dependent on market conditions.

A troubled major shareholder adds uncertainty

Achilles Capital, Sivers’ largest single investor, is linked to DDM Finance, which is in default on its bonds and undergoing restructuring. DDM plans to sell credit portfolios and stakes in tech and life sciences worth 30 to 50 million euros. Whether Sivers is among those assets remains unclear.

Adding to the pressure, Sweden’s Economic Crime Authority is investigating whether insider information about the Nasdaq listing plans leaked before the official announcement in April. That probe creates a regulatory shadow just as the company enters one of its most consequential periods — index inclusion, an AGM with strategic direction changes, and a pipeline that must now convert into tangible revenue in the second half.