Sivers Semiconductors: GlobalFoundries Deal Sparks Rally, But Analyst Target Sits 94% Below Market Price

Sivers Semiconductors hits all-time high after partnering with GlobalFoundries for AI data-center lasers, but Redeye maintains a fair value 93% below the current price, citing weak Q1 fundamentals.

The strategic partnership between Sivers Semiconductors and GlobalFoundries has triggered a historic surge in the Swedish chipmaker’s shares, pushing the stock to an all-time high. Yet the euphoric market reaction stands in stark contrast to a research note that values the company at a fraction of its current price.

Sivers announced on 2 June 2026 that its laser arrays will be integrated into GlobalFoundries’ silicon photonics platform, targeting the rapidly expanding AI data-center market. The technology supports next-generation architectures such as co-packaged optics (CPO) and linear-drive pluggable optics (LPO), both critical for powering large-scale AI clusters. GlobalFoundries, which rose 6.27% to $84.94 on the news, will make Sivers’ lasers a default component in its photonics ecosystem.

Investors piled in immediately. Sivers shares shot up more than 50% on the day, briefly surpassing 100 Swedish kronor intraday before settling at a record close of 97.45 SEK. That lifted the company’s market capitalisation to roughly 29 billion SEK and extended its year-to-date gain to more than 2,100%.

Not everyone is convinced the rally is justified. Redeye, the investment bank that covers Sivers under a corporate contract, stuck to its fair-value estimate of 6.20 SEK per share, a level set after the first-quarter report. Analyst Jacob Benon told Dagens Industri the move was “extremely strong” and said the partnership announcement did not alter the research house’s assessment. The gap between the current stock price and Redeye’s target is now among the widest in the Swedish small-cap universe.

That valuation chasm is rooted in the company’s recent financial performance. Sivers’ first-quarter figures showed a 22% drop in net revenue to 61.9 million SEK, with adjusted EBITDA of –13.8 million SEK, an operating loss of –41.5 million SEK, and negative operating cash flow of –49.2 million SEK. Management blamed the revenue decline on the US government shutdown in the fourth quarter of 2025, delayed defence-budget approvals, and unfavourable currency movements.

However, the order pipeline tells a different story. Sivers reported that its opportunity pipeline swelled 77% year over year to nearly 800 million dollars, fuelled largely by data-center and AI-related demand. The GlobalFoundries deal neatly fits that narrative, positioning Sivers as a key supplier for hyperscalers and chip companies upgrading their infrastructure.

Industry tailwinds are unmistakable. The pluggable-optics market alone is projected to hit $25 billion by 2030, and CPO designs—such as those used in Nvidia’s Spectrum-X switches—are up to five times more energy-efficient than conventional transceivers. STMicroelectronics recently nearly doubled its 2026 data-centre revenue target to roughly $1 billion, citing “near-package optics”. Marvell Technology has also seen its shares climb on strong AI-connectivity guidance.

Yet the GlobalFoundries announcement contained no binding commitments. The press release focused on reference designs and integration into GlobalFoundries’ SCALE platform, without disclosing contract value, guaranteed volumes, exclusivity, or a concrete revenue timeline. Until those details emerge, Redeye argues, the market is pricing in execution capacity that has yet to be proven at scale.

The central tension for Sivers shareholders is whether the photonics story can translate into reported revenue and positive cash flow quickly enough to support a valuation that has already priced in a dream scenario. As long as the company remains in the reference-design phase, the disconnect between the stock’s market price and the analyst’s cautious base-case target will remain the defining characteristic of this trade.