Sivers Semiconductors: Between a 2,100% Surge and a 90% Downside Target, Earnings Call the Shots

Sivers Semiconductors surges 2,100% on AI optics hype, but 7.23% short interest and analyst price target of 6.55 SEK imply 90% downside ahead of Q1 earnings.

The market is betting two different stories on Sivers Semiconductors. One side sees a company riding the AI infrastructure wave to a 2,100% rally in just six months. The other side sees a stock trading at a market capitalization of roughly 21.7 billion Swedish kronor against a revenue base that analysts expect will fall short of 80 million SEK in the first quarter. The divergence could hardly be sharper.

That skepticism is now showing up in the short book. According to Sweden’s financial watchdog, Finansinspektionen, aggregate short positions stood at 7.23% of share capital as of May 27. The only analyst price target on record sits at 6.55 SEK — implying a 90% decline from current levels around 68 SEK. That same analyst still maintains a "Buy" recommendation, a holdover from a valuation era the stock left behind months ago.

The recent price action has done little to settle the argument. On Tuesday, shares crashed 15.49% to 73.40 SEK. Then on Thursday they lost another 7.5%, closing at 67.92 SEK. The pullback is still modest relative to the monster rally, but it signals that early speculators may be taking profits ahead of Friday's first-quarter earnings release. The company posts results for Q1 2026 later today, with a conference call scheduled for 10:00 am.

Analysts expect a loss of 0.10 SEK per share, an improvement from the 0.19 SEK loss in the year-ago period. Revenue is forecast at 74.0 million SEK, down from 78.5 million SEK in Q1 2025 — a decline of roughly 6%. For the full year 2026, the consensus loss is 0.34 SEK per share on sales of around 360 million SEK. The market cap, meanwhile, sits near 22 billion SEK, implying investors are pricing in a growth trajectory that has yet to materialize.

The rally itself owes as much to social media as to fundamentals. An X account called "Serenity" — the same profile that earlier ignited a 77% surge in French chipmaker X-Fab — recommended Sivers, adding fuel to a fire already stoked by the company’s positioning in AI data-center hardware. Sivers specializes in high-performance laser arrays for co-packaged optics, with partnerships including Jabil for 1.6T transceiver modules, Ayar Labs for optical I/O, and POET Technologies, O-Net and Enablence for external light source modules. A separate mmWave transceiver collaboration with Tachyon Networks rounds out the portfolio.

Operationally, Sivers is working toward high-volume production of external light sources and has been preparing its books for a potential dual listing on the Nasdaq in New York. The 2025 annual report was pushed back to May 15, 2026, and the annual general meeting to June 15, 2026, as the company adapts its financial statements for 2024 and 2025 to US PCAOB auditing standards. Two new board members have also been nominated, signaling a governance overhaul ahead of a possible US listing.

Meanwhile, a wave of passive money could soon counteract the short sellers. Starting June 1, the stock will join the OMX Stockholm Benchmark Index, and an inclusion in the MSCI Small-Cap Index is also in the pipeline. Those index events are likely to trigger inflows from passive funds, setting up a battle between bearish shorts and index-driven buying. Friday’s earnings report will be the first test of whether the numbers can support either side.