Sivers Semiconductors: A Short-Selling Squeeze Meets a Nasdaq Ambition and a Criminal Inquiry

Nordea Bank raises margins on bear products as volatility spikes to 242%; Sivers faces dilution proposals and a critical report, with 17% of free float shorted.

Short sellers betting against Sivers Semiconductors are feeling the heat from multiple directions at once. Nordea Bank sharply increased the base interest margin on all its bear certificates and mini-future short products linked to the Swedish photonics stock, effective 3 June. The move comes as the stock’s annualised 30-day volatility has hit 242%, making hedging for short products exceptionally expensive. For the most aggressive factor -3 product, the margin now stands at 228.5%; for factor -2 it is 152.5%, and even the vanilla factor -1 product carries a 76.5% margin. The bank cited tight liquidity in the securities lending market and rising costs to borrow shares.

The pain for short sellers is compounded by structural demand from index funds. Sivers was added to the OMX Stockholm Benchmark Index on 1 June and is poised for inclusion in the MSCI Sweden Small-Cap Index, forcing tracking funds to adjust their portfolios. At last count, nearly 17% of the free float was out on loan, up from just 1.6% at the start of March. Among the largest disclosed short positions are Voleon Capital Management with 1.86% and Two Sigma Investments with 1.78% of outstanding shares.

The stock itself has been on a rollercoaster. After hitting a 52-week high of €10.23 on 3 June, it slid to €7.99 by Thursday, 4 June, and then fell another 5.4% to €7.55 the following day as profit-taking and short-covering forces collided.

All eyes are now on the annual general meeting scheduled for 15 June, where shareholders will vote on two capital-related proposals that could significantly dilute existing holdings. The board is seeking authorisation to issue up to 53.8 million new shares, representing a potential dilution of roughly 15% of the current equity base. Separately, a long-term incentive plan of up to 7 million stock options would add another 2% on a fully diluted basis. The funds from the broader share issuance would be earmarked for organic growth, potential acquisitions, and a planned secondary listing on the Nasdaq in New York. The company has already converted its 2024 and 2025 financial statements to PCAOB auditing standards in preparation for the US listing, though the timing depends on market conditions.

This proposed dilution comes on top of a recent capital increase: an extraordinary general meeting in May approved a targeted issue of 8.62 million new shares, settled on 29 May for a roughly 2.5% dilution. That was a separate transaction from the broader authorisation under discussion.

Adding to the tension, a critical report from the research house Ningi Research, published on 1 June, accused the company of aggressive revenue recognition that may violate IFRS rules. Ningi flagged at least 97 million Swedish kronor in questionable revenue — around 31% of the total revenue reported for 2025 — including instances where revenue was booked for products not yet produced and where government research subsidies were recorded as commercial sales. The allegations have not been confirmed by any regulatory authority.

Simultaneously, the Swedish Economic Crime Authority is investigating whether confidential details regarding the planned Nasdaq listing leaked before the official announcement in April. The probe adds a layer of uncertainty to a stock already trading at extreme valuation multiples.

Operationally, the first quarter of 2026 was weak. Net revenue fell 22% year on year to 61.9 million SEK, adjusted EBITDA came in at minus 13.8 million SEK, and the net loss widened to 42.7 million SEK. Management blamed a US government shutdown in Q4 2025, delays in defence budget approvals, and unfavourable exchange rates. Despite the poor quarter, the company points to its pipeline, which has grown 77% since the start of the year to $799 million. In the automotive LiDAR segment, series production with a major carmaker is planned for Q4 2026. In 5G/6G, the Daybreak beamforming ICs for FR3 applications are now generally available. On the defence front, a development contract with a leading US defence contractor is under way, and the second funding phase of the EW-Star project under the US CHIPS Act has been confirmed, subject to successful technical milestones.

The company has also secured a convertible loan of $12 million at an annual interest rate of 10.85%, maturing at the end of 2029. The loan is subject to approval at the AGM.

On the governance side, the AGM will mark a generational change: vice-chairman Tomas Duffy, founding investor Erik Fallström, and Keith Halsey are leaving the board. Joakim Nideborn, a former CFO of listed technology companies, has been proposed as the new vice-chair.

The vote on 15 June will reveal whether shareholders back management’s ambitious Nasdaq strategy or demand answers on the outstanding allegations first. For short sellers, the cost of waiting is already rising — but so is the potential reward if the dilution sceptics turn out to be right.