Sivers Semiconductors: A 70% Rally and a $799M Pipeline — But Redeye Sees Just 6.20 SEK

Sivers stock surges 70%+ on GlobalFoundries AI photonics partnership, but analyst Redeye holds 6.20 SEK target (94% downside). Revenue drops 22%, cash burn persists.

Sivers Semiconductors rocketed more than 70% in a single trading session on Tuesday after unveiling a strategic alliance with GlobalFoundries in silicon photonics for AI data centres, lifting the stock past 100 SEK on Nasdaq Stockholm at one point. That intraday peak represented a year-to-date gain of over 2,400% — a staggering move for a company still bleeding cash. Yet the analyst most intimately familiar with the Swedish chipmaker has not budged an inch.

Redeye, the investment bank retained by Sivers to provide research coverage, reiterated its fair-value estimate of 6.20 SEK per share immediately after the rally. Analyst Jacob Benon told Dagens Industri the share-price reaction was “extremely strong” and made clear that the partnership announcement did nothing to alter the firm’s valuation assessment. The gap between the market’s enthusiasm and Redeye’s target now stands at roughly 94% from pre-rally levels, and even wider from Tuesday’s highs.

The collaboration, confirmed on 2 June, centres on integrating Sivers’ laser arrays into reference designs built on GlobalFoundries’ silicon-photonics platform. The technology supports both co-packaged optics (CPO) and linear pluggable optics (LPO) architectures — two approaches considered critical for scaling bandwidth in AI workloads. Sivers’ lasers will also become part of GlobalFoundries’ SCALE platform, which combines integrated photonics building blocks with wavelength multiplexing and advanced packaging, aiming to produce energy-efficient optical engines for hyperscale data centres.

What the announcement conspicuously left out, however, were hard numbers. No contract value, binding volume commitments, exclusivity terms, or a concrete revenue timeline were disclosed. The statement focused on reference designs and platform integration, not on near-term commercial shipments. The addressable market for pluggable optics is projected to reach $25 billion by 2030, but Sivers has yet to convert that opportunity into reported revenue.

That challenge was laid bare in the first-quarter results released just four days earlier, on 29 May. Sivers’ net revenue fell 22% year-on-year to 61.9 million Swedish kronor. Adjusted EBITDA came in at minus 13.8 million SEK, the operating result at minus 41.5 million SEK, and operating cash flow at minus 49.2 million SEK. The company attributed the decline to delayed US defence budgets following the government shutdown in the final quarter of 2025, combined with an unfavourable currency environment.

Yet management points to a pipeline that has swelled 77% since the start of the year to $799 million — an indicator of growing engagement with hyperscale and defence customers. Sivers reiterated its full-year guidance, betting the second half of 2026 will deliver the growth that the first half has not. The board is also exploring a potential US dual listing, a move designed to deepen access to American capital markets.

The central question now is whether the GlobalFoundries partnership can begin translating that swollen pipeline into tangible orders, margins, and cash generation fast enough to justify the current market price. Redeye’s hesitation reflects a simple reality: the market is discounting a level of execution capacity that Sivers has yet to demonstrate at scale. Until reference designs become products and product shipments become reported revenue, the chasm between the stock’s euphoric valuation and the analyst’s sober target will remain the defining narrative for Sivers Semiconductors.