Nvidia’s 174.40 Euro Lifeline: Can a Strong Quarter and Apple Deal Outweigh the Broadcom Contagion?

Nvidia shares fell 5.42% amid Broadcom's weak guidance, approaching the 50-day moving average. Despite near-term volatility, strong earnings and AI partnerships support long-term uptrend.

Nvidia shares closed Friday at €178.08, shedding 5.42% in a single session as the shockwaves from Broadcom’s disappointing third-quarter forecast swept through the AI complex. The decline has brought the stock perilously close to its 50-day moving average of €174.40 — a level that now stands as the first line of defence between a healthy pullback and a deeper correction.

The 50-day line sits just 2.09% below Friday’s close, leaving almost no margin for error. Below that, the 100-day moving average at €165.70 and the 200-day at €161.46 offer progressively stronger safety nets. The 200-day line is still 10.27% lower — a reminder that the long-term uptrend remains intact, provided those supports hold. The 52-week low of €122.42 is a distant 45% away.

Broadcom’s rout was the proximate cause. The chip giant reported a record quarter — AI semiconductor revenue surged 143% to $10.8 billion, and adjusted EPS of $2.44 beat estimates — but its Q3 guidance of roughly $16 billion in AI chip revenue fell short of the $17.2 billion analysts had expected. The resulting 15% single-day wipeout erased $320 billion in market value and dragged down the entire AI sector. For Nvidia, it compounded what had already been a sideways month, with the stock now barely up 10% year to date.

Technical indicators are sending mixed signals. The relative strength index at 45.2 points to neither oversold conditions nor strong momentum. The annualised 30-day volatility of 43.58% confirms that outsized swings are part of the current setup. “From panic capitulation we see no sign,” the chart suggests — but nor does it flash a clear buy signal.

Yet beneath the market noise, Nvidia’s operational narrative remains compelling. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue climbed 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, surpassing consensus estimates. CEO Jensen Huang pegged hyperscaler capital expenditure on AI data centres at $1 trillion for 2027. Bank of America raised its price target to $320, citing a total addressable market of $1.7 trillion for AI data-centre infrastructure.

A strategic milestone is taking shape behind the scenes. Apple, Google and Nvidia are reportedly collaborating on the next generation of Siri, with the AI-powered assistant running on Google’s Gemini models and Nvidia’s Blackwell chips. The launch is slated for September 2026 alongside the new iPhone. If confirmed at Apple’s WWDC on June 8, it would place Nvidia’s infrastructure at the heart of one of the world’s most widely used consumer products.

On the product front, Nvidia used Computex 2026 in Taipei to unveil Nemotron 3 Ultra, its most powerful open-source AI model to date, boasting 500 to 550 billion parameters for advanced reasoning and agent workflows. At the same event, the company announced RTX Spark with Microsoft for Windows PCs featuring personal AI agents, confirmed that the Vera CPU for AI workloads is in the pipeline, and stated that the Vera-Rubin platform has entered series production. Huang stressed that supply, while still tight, is secured.

Risks have not disappeared. All H20 shipments to China were absent from the latest quarter, after contributing $4.6 billion a year earlier. Reports of falling rental prices for H200 GPUs suggest a cooling spot market. And the stock’s valuation — the average 12-month analyst target stands at around €256, implying 44% upside, while the Bank of America target of $320 (roughly €293) is even more ambitious — means expectations are already elevated.

The consensus among 47 analysts remains a “Strong Buy”, with an average target of about $256 (converted from EUR equivalent), but the immediate price action hinges on one number: €174.40. If that 50-day support holds, the pullback may prove short-lived. A decisive break would shift focus to the 100-day line at €165.70, and then to the 200-day at €161.46. For a stock that hit a 52-week high of €202.50 in May, the coming sessions will determine whether this is a pause within an uptrend or the beginning of a more significant realignment.