Novo Nordisk’s Oral Ozempic Arrives as GLP-1 Data Opens New Frontier

Novo Nordisk enters a critical week with US launch of improved oral Ozempic, Lancet study showing semaglutide cuts heavy drinking by 41%, and Q1 earnings amid stock near multi-year lows.

The Danish drugmaker enters a make-or-break week with two catalysts that could reshape its narrative: the US launch of an improved oral Ozempic and a Lancet study showing semaglutide cuts heavy drinking days by 41.1%. Yet the stock trades near multi-year lows, with Q1 earnings due Tuesday serving as the ultimate test of investor confidence.

Oral Semaglutide Hits 70,000 Pharmacies

Since Monday, the new Ozempic tablet has been available across roughly 70,000 US pharmacies in 1.5 mg, 4 mg, and 9 mg doses for adults with type 2 diabetes. This isn’t a simple rebranding of Rybelsus — Novo Nordisk has improved the oral semaglutide’s bioavailability and slightly reduced the pill’s size. Manufacturing is fully domestic, centered in North Carolina.

Pricing aims for broad access. Insured patients pay as little as $25 for a three-month prescription, while uninsured customers face $149 to $299 monthly depending on dosage. The move comes as Novo fights to defend its GLP-1 franchise against Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, which now commands over 60% of the US obesity market.

Alcohol Dependence Data Opens New Indication

A randomized controlled trial published April 30 in The Lancet delivered striking results: weekly semaglutide reduced heavy drinking days by 41.1% in patients with obesity and alcohol dependence — 13.7 percentage points better than placebo. Conducted by researchers at Copenhagen University Hospital, the study found participants initially drank heavily on 17 of 30 days. After six months, that fell to roughly five days in the semaglutide group versus nine with placebo.

The number needed to treat — a key efficacy metric — stood at 4.3, significantly better than the 7 or more seen with currently approved alcohol dependence medications. The finding opens a potential new therapeutic frontier for GLP-1 drugs beyond diabetes and weight loss.

Q1 Earnings Under the Microscope

Tuesday’s quarterly report arrives under a cloud. Analysts forecast an 8% revenue decline year-over-year and a 16% drop in earnings per share to roughly $0.88. The options market prices in a 7% swing in either direction — unusually wide, reflecting deep uncertainty.

The stock has partially recovered, with the ADR closing at $43.88 on May 1, up nearly 4% on the day. But that remains more than 56% below the 52-week high of $81.44. In European trading, shares sit about 20% below their January level, roughly half the 52-week peak of €70.13. The RSI of 23 signals deeply oversold territory, though technicians caution that alone doesn’t guarantee a reversal.

Three Questions for Management

Investors will scrutinize the earnings call for answers on three fronts. First, can Novo maintain its 2026 guidance of minus 5% to minus 13% organic revenue growth — a forecast issued before the REDEFINE-4 setback? Second, how are Wegovy pill prescriptions tracking? The weekly run rate stood at roughly 50,000 in late January, and the oral format is seen as crucial to countering Lilly’s market share gains. Third, what’s the status of production capacity? Novo announced Wegovy HD for the US in April and plans roughly 55 billion Danish kroner in capital expenditure this year.

Analyst Skepticism Mounts

Wall Street has turned decisively bearish. Citi downgraded the stock, Bernstein initiated with “Underperform” and warned the earnings revision cycle may not be finished. Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen, and Deutsche Bank all cut their price targets. Adding to the pressure, Health Canada approved a biosimilar to Ozempic from Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, threatening pricing power in a key market.

A Glimmer of Optimism

One bright spot: Novo Nordisk struck a partnership with OpenAI in mid-April to deploy artificial intelligence across drug discovery, manufacturing, and supply chain operations. Integration is expected by year-end 2026. Financial terms weren’t disclosed, and the deal has done little to lift the stock so far — the market is focused on nearer-term answers that Tuesday’s report must provide.