Nebius Hits $375M in Q1 Revenue as Goldman Lifts Target to $205 on Meta Deal Stability

Nebius posts $375M Q1 revenue, positive EBITDA, and a $50B backlog, but faces a $7.2B financing gap amid massive data center expansion.

The numbers coming out of Nebius are getting harder to ignore. The AI infrastructure player posted $375 million in revenue for the first quarter of 2026, landing squarely within analyst expectations, while its stock closed Tuesday at $141.19 — up 4.2 percent and hovering near all-time highs. The quarterly print marks a sharp acceleration from the $227.7 million recorded in the prior quarter, though the company reported a loss of $0.81 per share.

Goldman Sachs responded by raising its price target to $205, citing the stability of Nebius's $12 billion dedicated compute contract with Meta — part of a potential $27 billion total package — and projected revenue growth extending through 2030. The bank flagged the simultaneous management of nine data center construction projects as a key risk, noting that the operational complexity leaves virtually no margin for error.

A $50 Billion Backlog Meets a $7.2 Billion Gap

Nebius is sitting on a massive order book of nearly $50 billion through 2031, underpinned by major deals with Microsoft worth $19.4 billion and the Meta contract. NVIDIA has also injected $2 billion in strategic investment, bolstering the company's liquidity position.

But the scale of the ambition creates its own math problem. Nebius plans to invest between $16 billion and $20 billion this year alone to expand power capacity beyond 3 gigawatts — with nearly 1 gigawatt expected to be available by year-end. Against roughly $10 billion in available liquidity, that leaves a financing gap of about $7.2 billion. Investors will be watching closely for how management intends to bridge that shortfall.

Margins Turn Positive as Software Ambitions Grow

There are signs the operational picture is improving. Nebius reported its first positive adjusted EBITDA of $15 million in the prior quarter, and management is targeting a margin of roughly 40 percent for the full year 2026. The company is also pushing beyond pure compute capacity into higher-margin software services, having acquired Israeli startup Tavily for up to $400 million and reportedly negotiating for AI21 Labs. The goal is to let customers build complete AI agents directly on the platform, generating recurring service revenue.

Aether Platform and New Hardware

Alongside the earnings release, Nebius launched version 3.5 of its AI cloud platform, internally dubbed "Aether." The update introduces serverless capabilities for running large AI workloads and supports NVIDIA's new RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell Server Edition GPUs, making Nebius one of the first providers to deploy that hardware. A new data transfer service aims to simplify enterprise migration into Nebius cloud regions.

The Stakes for the Rest of 2026

Management is holding firm on its full-year revenue target of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, while aiming for an annualized run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end. The company has missed analyst estimates in three of the last four quarters, and with a price-to-sales ratio of 64, the market is not forgiving. Insider sales totaling nearly $15 million in recent months add another layer of scrutiny. If the next guidance update disappoints, the stock's premium valuation leaves little room for a soft landing.