Inside Partners Group: Insiders Bet $20 Million on a Turnaround as Fund Gating Tests Investor Loyalty

Directors buy CHF 2.2M in shares as retail investors flee gated Evergreen funds, triggering a 35% stock plunge and analyst downgrades.

Two starkly different narratives are playing out at Partners Group. On one side, three directors have plowed roughly 2.2 million Swiss francs into the company’s shares over a two-day buying spree, part of a broader insider haul of more than 20 million francs in recent months. On the other, retail investors are scrambling for the exits, blocked by a cap on fund redemptions that has turned a liquidity scare into a full-blown crisis of confidence.

The stock has lost nearly 35% since the start of the year, sliding to 714.40 euros — perilously close to its 52-week low. The trigger was a Grizzly Research report in April that accused Partners Group of systematically inflating valuations in its Evergreen funds. The Swiss asset manager dismissed the allegations as defamatory and filed a lawsuit, but the damage was done. Redemption requests in the Global Value SICAV, an open-ended fund managing $8.6 billion, surged to nearly 10% of its net asset value during the second quarter — almost double the permitted quarterly limit.

Management responded by throttling payouts. The fund now caps withdrawals at 5% of NAV, and only about 62% of those eligible requests are being satisfied. The choke point is retail investors, who make up roughly one-fifth of the firm’s assets under management and have proven far more skittish than the institutional cohorts that typically anchor private-equity funds. Three other Evergreen vehicles are expected to face similar outflows in the current quarter.

The mechanics are brutal for the share price. When Partners Group gates fund redemptions, its fee income shrinks in lockstep, since management fees are calculated on assets under management. The market has repriced the stock to reflect that shrinking revenue stream, largely ignoring the underlying portfolio value. Short sellers have taken notice: the short interest has climbed to 8% of outstanding shares, a level that signals aggressive bets on further declines.

Analysts are racing to lower their sights. Goldman Sachs slashed its price target twice within a week, landing at 860 Swiss francs. Baader Europe cut earnings estimates for the next two years by as much as 22%. Bank of America set a target of 850 francs, Jefferies dropped to 760 francs, and Oddo BHF downgraded the stock to a hold with a 920-franc target — a wide range that underscores deep uncertainty. The relative strength index has fallen to 23.9, a level that typically indicates an asset is deeply oversold and due for a bounce, though short-term technical signals have offered little comfort so far.

Against that backdrop, the insider buying stands out. Co-founder Fredy Gantner has called the sell-off a massive overreaction, while acknowledging that the company needs to communicate more proactively. Management is sticking with its medium-term guidance, forecasting net new client demand of between $26 billion and $32 billion by 2026. To win back confidence, the firm has launched a new product line — the Total Return Strategy — which relies on less leverage and targets an initial dividend yield of 5% to 8%.

The first real test of credibility arrives on July 15, when Partners Group will release an update on assets under management as of June 30. That data will provide the cleanest evidence yet of how deeply the redemption wave has cut into its capital base. If institutional inflows can measurably offset the retail exodus, management may have a case for calling a bottom. If not, the gating crisis — and the stock’s slide — could have further to run. The detailed half-year report follows on September 1.