Inside IREN’s High-Stakes Pivot: A $3.4 Billion Nvidia Deal, a $247 Million Loss, and a Billionaire Investor’s Big Bet

Macro investor Paul Tudor Jones boosts IREN stake by 57% amid analyst split; Nvidia $3.4B contract and Microsoft deal fuel AI infrastructure rally.

The numbers paint two starkly different pictures of IREN. The stock has soared 511% over the past twelve months and 40.9% year-to-date, yet the company posted a net loss of $247.8 million in its latest quarter. One prominent investor has just thrown his weight behind the AI infrastructure story, while the analyst community remains deeply divided.

Paul Tudor Jones, through Tudor Investment, increased his IREN position by 57% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest 13F filing. The macro investor now holds roughly 31.8 million shares, valued at about $73 million. At the same time, he slashed call options by half and reduced put options by 28% — a clear shift from short-term derivatives toward a long-term equity bet. Jones has compared the current AI infrastructure boom to the internet rally of 1995 and the tech surge of 1999, estimating that global spending on AI infrastructure already accounts for about 1% of GDP.

The market initially cheered the news, with IREN shares gaining 4.72% in pre-market US trading to $59.51. In Germany, the stock later eased to €51.39, down slightly on Tuesday. Over the past seven days, however, the stock is still up 24.9%.

Wall Street’s view is far from unanimous. Of the 19 analysts covering IREN, 13 rate it a buy, four say hold, and two recommend selling. The average price target stands at $71.77 — roughly 20% upside from recent levels — but the spread is unusually wide. HC Wainwright and BTIG sit at the optimistic end with targets of $85 and $80 respectively. JPMorgan, by contrast, rates the stock underweight with a $46 target, while Goldman Sachs maintains neutral at $44. The gap reflects sharp disagreement over whether IREN can translate its massive capacity buildout into sustainable profits.

The company’s biggest catalyst remains a five-year AI cloud contract with Nvidia worth $3.4 billion. As part of the deal, Nvidia received an option to purchase up to 30 million IREN common shares at $70 each — a potential capital injection of $2.1 billion. IREN also has a separate agreement with Microsoft valued at $9.7 billion, including $3.6 billion in dedicated financing. These contracts have underpinned the stock’s rally and attracted institutions like Tudor Investment.

On the operational front, IREN is pushing ahead aggressively. Its GPU fleet now stands at 150 units, and the Sweetwater 1 site in Texas runs at 1.4 gigawatts. The company is expanding in Europe through Ingenostrum and has added $625 million in Mirantis software, complemented by marketing partner Awaken. Management plans to invest another roughly $3.5 billion in AI infrastructure during the second half of 2026.

Yet the financials highlight the cost of that ambition. Third-quarter revenue came in at $144.8 million, well below the analyst consensus of $219.29 million. Free cash flow was negative $1.4 billion, and the net loss widened to $247.8 million. The bright spot was AI cloud revenue, which nearly doubled sequentially to $33.6 million. Management targets an annual recurring revenue of $3.7 billion by the end of 2026, with $3.1 billion already under contract.

The stock currently trades at around €50 in Europe, about 28% above its 50-day moving average. It remains well below the 52-week high of €66.51 reached in early November 2025. For IREN to reclaim that level — and for Tudor Jones’s big bet to pay off — the company must demonstrate that its signed contracts can translate into cash flow-positive margins, not just growth at any cost.