Gold Rebounds as Trade War Anniversary Stirs Markets

Gold prices surge after a steep March decline, fueled by geopolitical easing and trade policy uncertainty. Key support at $4,410, with Goldman Sachs holding a $5,400 year-end target.

Gold prices have opened April with significant gains, marking a notable recovery following their steepest monthly decline in over sixteen years. After falling 14% in March—the worst performance since October 2008—buyers are returning to the market. This shift is driven by a mix of geopolitical developments and renewed trade policy anxiety surrounding the one-year anniversary of the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs.

Technical Outlook and Institutional Views

The LBMA gold spot price is currently trading near $4,559, representing a daily increase of just over one percent. From a technical perspective, the $4,410 to $4,420 zone is viewed as a critical support level. Should this area hold, analysts identify subsequent price targets at $4,580, $4,660, and $4,760. The first significant resistance is expected near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, approximately at $4,592.

Headwinds for the precious metal persist, primarily from a robust US dollar and elevated real yields. The Federal Reserve is maintaining stable interest rates and has signaled only a single potential cut for 2026, citing a persistent core inflation rate of 3.6%. Reflecting near-term caution, traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 74% probability that gold will fall below $4,500 during April.

Despite this, Goldman Sachs reaffirms its year-end price target of $5,400, pointing to ongoing market turbulence as a key driver for the metal. This week, new directional cues will come from macroeconomic data releases, including JOLTS job openings and US unemployment figures.

Geopolitical Easing and Trade Policy Legacy

The immediate catalyst for yesterday's price surge, which pushed gold from $4,511 to an intraday high of $4,619, was reports suggesting a potential end to the US military campaign against Iran. This news triggered a broad risk-on sentiment in financial markets.

The ongoing market focus on trade policy coincides with the anniversary of a major event. On April 2, 2025, the announcement of the most extensive US tariffs in a century was made, an event that initially roiled markets. While markets later recovered as the initial measures were moderated, a February ruling by the Supreme Court declared the "Liberation Day" tariffs illegal. This judicial decision has now initiated a reimbursement process estimated at approximately $170 billion.

A critical detail for gold investors is that physical bullion was explicitly exempted from the original tariff order. Consequently, the precious metal is positioned to benefit from the volatility and uncertainty generated by trade policy without being directly subjected to its costs.