Gold Holds Near $4,730 as Central Bank Buying Offsets Dollar Pressure and CPI Uncertainty

Gold treads water around $4,730 as markets await US CPI data that could strengthen the dollar, while central bank buying and geopolitical tensions provide support.

Gold is treading water around $4,730 an ounce, caught between a hawkish dollar outlook and fresh geopolitical flashpoints. The metal briefly dipped below $4,700 in the prior session after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to relocate enriched uranium stocks, branding it “completely unacceptable.” That sell-off, a 0.36% decline to $4,699.07, was largely reversed in Asian trading as traders recalibrated ahead of the afternoon’s critical US inflation data.

Inflation data holds the trigger

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April’s consumer price index later today, and the consensus is for a 0.6% month-on-month rise, pushing the annual headline rate to 3.7%. Core inflation is expected at 0.3% monthly and 2.7% year-on-year. A hotter-than-forecast reading would cement expectations that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady for longer, strengthening the dollar and making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. The market has already priced out a June cut: the probability of a reduction to 3.25–3.50% stands at just 4.2%.

Higher gasoline prices are the main upward risk to the CPI report. Falling crude and softer bond yields had recently lent support to gold, but the inflation data must confirm that relief for the rally to extend.

Central banks provide a resilient floor

Underneath the noise, institutional demand continues to anchor prices. Central banks added a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, according to World Gold Council data. Poland’s National Bank led the charge, increasing its reserves by 31 tonnes. China and Uzbekistan also bought steadily. That buying has helped offset substantial outflows from physically backed US gold exchange-traded funds, which saw $12.7 billion exit in March, the largest monthly outflow in at least five years.

Globally, total gold demand including over-the-counter trading reached 1,230.9 tonnes in Q1, up 2% year-on-year, driven by bar and coin purchases. The bifurcation between institutional appetite and Western fund rotation leaves the market unevenly positioned.

Diplomacy adds another layer

A separate thread of uncertainty runs through the diplomatic calendar. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are holding trade talks in Seoul, ahead of Trump’s state visit to Beijing on May 14. Any visible progress would temporarily damp safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, keeping energy prices vulnerable and inflation fears alive — a contradictory tailwind for gold, which benefits from geopolitical risk but is punished by rising real yields.

Technicals tighten the range

From a chart perspective, gold is digesting its January all-time high. The immediate trigger sits at $4,744; below that, the 40-period moving average near $4,706 offers support, with a deeper floor around $4,495. A cool CPI print could propel bullion above resistance at $4,750, brightening the short-term outlook. On the downside, the 200-day moving average near $4,000 provides the final line of defense for the long-term uptrend. Until the inflation verdict lands, the metal remains locked in a narrow, tense wait.