Gold Finds Its Footing as Geopolitical Tensions Shift

Gold rebounds from a steep March sell-off, buoyed by a softer dollar and strong ETF inflows. Markets now watch the new April 6th Iran deadline and upcoming U.S. jobs data.

A notable rally is underway in the gold market, with the LBMA gold price advancing approximately 1.6% to $4,721 per troy ounce. This upward movement finds its catalyst in a geopolitical development: the U.S. administration has postponed a critical deadline concerning Iran to April 6th. This brief respite from immediate escalation has provided sufficient impetus to shift market sentiment.

Contributing to the metal's strength is a softening U.S. dollar. As gold is dollar-denominated, a weaker greenback reduces the cost for buyers holding other currencies, enhancing its appeal and accounting for a portion of the day's gains.

Rebounding from a Steep Decline

The significance of this recovery is amplified by its context. March proved a challenging month for the precious metal, which registered a loss exceeding 13%—its most severe monthly decline in years. At its lowest point, prices approached the $4,100 level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping to 28, signaling a deeply oversold condition. Despite this setback, gold maintains a quarterly gain of 7%.

Underlying structural demand appears resilient. Data from the World Gold Council reveals that net inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached 78 tonnes during the first two months of 2026, a substantial increase from the 45 tonnes recorded in the same period a year earlier. January alone witnessed a record monthly inflow of $19 billion into these products, with total assets under management climbing to a cumulative $701 billion.

On the supply side, a noteworthy shift has emerged. Russia's central bank sold 500,000 ounces from its reserves in January and February, marking its first net sales in over two decades as it moves to address a widening budget deficit.

All Eyes on the New Deadline

Market attention is now firmly fixed on the new date of April 6th. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated there is currently "no basis for negotiations." Meanwhile, reports from The Wall Street Journal indicate that the United Arab Emirates is prepared to assist the U.S. and its allies, if necessary, in a potential military operation to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Institutional forecasts reflect a cautious near-term outlook with longer-term optimism. Goldman Sachs maintains an April base-case price range of $4,500 to $4,600, contingent on no ceasefire being reached. Looking further ahead, major banks remain bullish: J.P. Morgan projects a year-end target of $6,300, while Deutsche Bank holds to a $6,000 price objective.

The immediate economic calendar also holds sway, with the upcoming release of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and the March unemployment rate. These figures could alter expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, thereby exerting a direct influence on gold's trajectory.