Gold at a Crossroads: Ghana’s Central-Bank Grab, India’s Tariff Shock, and a Chinese Recycling Wave

Gold treads water around $4,553 as India hikes import tariffs to 15%, Ghana mandates 30% output sales to central bank, and rising US yields dampen demand.

Gold markets began the week treading water as contradictory forces pull the precious metal in opposite directions. The yellow metal last changed hands at $4,553.00 an ounce, barely a whisker below Friday’s close, while the broader consolidation has shaved 4.06% off prices over the past seven days. On a monthly view the retreat deepens to 6.27%, even though bullion still holds a year-to-date gain of just over 5%.

The standstill masks a tangle of regional and structural shifts. India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, jolted the market by raising import tariffs on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. The move came hard on the heels of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public appeal for citizens to curb gold purchases for a full year. New Delhi’s aim is clear: preserve foreign-exchange reserves squeezed by elevated energy costs. India’s average monthly imports had been running at 83 tonnes in the first months of 2025, and the value of first-quarter demand hit roughly $25 billion. Local jewellers now face a steep cost increase, though the global impact may be muted as long as the bigger drivers—interest rates, the dollar, and inflation expectations—remain elsewhere.

On the supply side, an entirely different kind of state intervention is unfolding in West Africa. Ghana has decreed that gold producers must sell 30% of their annual output to the central bank with immediate effect. The government is racing to shore up national reserves, aiming to lift the current meagre 19-tonne stockpile significantly by 2028. That hunger for physical gold is not confined to Accra. Central banks worldwide bought 244 tonnes in the first quarter alone, according to the World Gold Council. China topped up its stash by another eight tonnes in April, and Goldman Sachs analysts project average monthly purchases of 60 tonnes for the full year.

Yet the supply pipeline also holds a countercurrent. In China, where the gold price has touched historic highs, consumers and companies are cashing in. Recycling volumes have reached a ten-year peak, as old jewelry and scrap bullion pour onto the market. Russia, meanwhile, provided a cautionary tale for monetizing gold assets: authorities failed to find a buyer for a seized stake in gold producer Uzhuralzoloto, valued at around €1.7 billion, at a state auction. Market participants view the unsold lot as a sign of the troubled liquidity that still surrounds Russian commodity holdings.

Macro headwinds are adding their own weight. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed to roughly 4.63%, its highest level since January 2025, making non-yielding gold less attractive. A firmer dollar compounds the pressure by making dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. At the CME Group, 97.4% of traders now expect no change in the federal funds rate at the next meeting, with a rate cut priced at just 2.6%. That repricing follows sticky U.S. inflation data that has dampened hopes for near-term easing.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—including fresh U.S. pressure on Iran and attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf—would typically spur flight-to-safety buying. But for now, yield and currency moves are drowning out the risk premium. The market is hovering just below its 50-day moving average. This week’s FOMC minutes and preliminary U.S. PMI readings will provide the next directional cues. As long as central banks sustain their current pace of strategic accumulation, the downside for gold remains well-buttressed—but the path higher is crowded with obstacles from New Delhi to Washington.