Dual Analyst Endorsements and a Key Earnings Catalyst Set the Stage for Deutsche Telekom Shares

Deutsche Telekom shares gain as 38-day moving average signals buy, with T-Mobile US earnings on Wednesday seen as key catalyst; JPMorgan and UBS issue bullish targets.

Deutsche Telekom shares ended last week at €27.01, a modest 1.09% gain on the day and a 3.09% weekly advance, as a technical buy signal emerged just days before the company's most important earnings release of the quarter. The stock, however, still sits 21% below its February high of €34.35 and remains in negative territory year-to-date, down 2.81%.

T-Mobile US, the group's primary profit engine, reports second-quarter figures on Thursday, July 23. Analysts expect earnings per share of $2.57–$2.58 on revenue of roughly $23 billion, with particular attention on contract customer additions after the unit adjusted pricing on older plans to push subscribers toward 5G tiers. The earnings release traditionally sets the tone for the parent company's shares, and a strong showing could provide the catalyst needed to sustain the nascent technical recovery.

Two major investment banks have already weighed in with bullish calls. JPMorgan reaffirmed its overweight rating and a €40 price target on July 10, implying a roughly 48% upside from current levels. Analyst Akhil Dattani cited expected earnings-per-share growth and noted that the stock has shed around 30% since its March 2025 peak, driven by a mix of strategic and long-term uncertainties. Just three days later, UBS analyst Polo Tang followed suit with a buy rating and a €36.20 target, arguing that Deutsche Telekom's domestic business remains stable while T-Mobile US holds its strong market position.

Chart technicians found reason for optimism last week. On July 17, the stock's 38-day moving average crossed above the price action, a pattern often interpreted as a short-term bullish signal. The relative strength index sits at 55.7, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The shares now trade just shy of the 50-day average of €27.30, while the 200-day line at €28.71 remains about 5.93% above the current price. Since hitting a 52-week low of €23.54 on June 30, the stock has recovered 14.74%.

A key support mechanism remains active. The company's third share-buyback tranche of up to €560 million began on July 1 and will run through the end of September. The overall program, announced for fiscal 2026, allocates up to €2 billion to reduce outstanding shares and bolster earnings per share.

Beyond the immediate earnings and buyback calendar, Deutsche Telekom is also steering a strategic quantum-communications project. On July 14, the company confirmed it would coordinate PETRUS2, an EU initiative to build a secure quantum-communication infrastructure for Europe, partnering with Airbus and Thales.

The longer-term picture, however, is clouded by a structural debate that has unnerved some stakeholders. A recent report by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung suggested management is exploring a tighter integration of Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile US under a common holding company, aimed at closing the valuation gap between the German parent and its higher-multiple US subsidiary. The proposal has drawn criticism from at least one top-30 shareholder, who warned of risks to the entire group's market capitalization. The German government, which holds roughly a 28% stake, is also said to be skeptical. Deutsche Telekom has not officially commented on the reports.

Volatility remains elevated for a DAX constituent, with a 30-day reading of 31.51%. Analysts attribute the swings to the flow of news around the US business and the strategic overhaul proposals. Until the holding debate is resolved — or pushes the stock one way or the other — the shares are likely to remain sensitive to fresh developments. Deutsche Telekom's own interim report will follow on August 6, providing another key checkpoint for investors weighing the bull case against the structural uncertainty.