DRAM Squeeze and ASML’s Raise Give VanEck Chip ETF a Fresh Tailwind

VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF climbs back above €100, driven by DRAM supply crunch boosting Korean tech stocks and ASML's strong Q2 earnings, despite a recent sell-off and regulatory clampdown on leveraged ETFs.

The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF has clawed its way back above €100, drawing support from a double dose of good news: a structural shortage of memory chips that is lifting South Korean heavyweights and a blockbuster outlook from lithography leader ASML. The fund settled at €100.50 on Wednesday, up 1.52% on the day and 2.83% higher on the week, though it remains 3.86% below where it stood a month ago. Year?to?date the ETF has gained 82.86%, and over twelve months the advance has stretched to 138.26%.

At the heart of the latest leg up is a supply crunch in DRAM, the workhorse memory chip used in everything from data?centre servers to smartphones. According to Meritz Securities, DRAM producers are currently meeting only 75% to 80% of demand, and that fill rate could slip to around 60% by 2027. SK Hynix chief executive Kwak Noh?jung has warned that 2027 will bring the worst supply tightness in the industry’s history, with demand outstripping even the company’s aggressive expansion plans well into the next decade. An analyst from HSBC added that the shift to three? to five?year supply contracts is improving revenue visibility and should help dampen earnings volatility.

This fundamental scarcity helped fuel a sharp rally in Asian tech stocks on July 15. Seoul’s Kospi surged 7%, with SK Hynix adding more than 8%, Samsung Electronics climbing 6.27% and Seoul Semiconductor rising 6.19%. In Japan, Advantest jumped 5.83%, Lasertec soared 10.18% and Tokyo Electron gained 4.37%. The momentum spilled over to the US-listed version of the VanEck fund, which rose 2.5% in New York, while Micron and Lam Research each tacked on 5% and Applied Materials and Teradyne both advanced 3%. The catalyst was a softer?than?expected US consumer price index for June, which printed at 3.5% year?on?year against a 3.8% forecast, with core inflation at 2.6% versus 2.8% expected. KB Securities described the move as a bounce from oversold territory rather than evidence that fears over the sustainability of AI investment are fading.

That bounce followed a historic sell?off on July 13, when the Kospi cratered 8.95%. SK Hynix suffered its worst single?day drop since 1996, losing 15.37%, and Samsung gave back 10.7%. Goldman Sachs attributed much of the damage to forced liquidations of single?stock leveraged ETFs that had only been launched in South Korea in May; the bank calculated that 62% of institutional net selling that day came from the unwinding of those products. South Korea’s financial regulator responded on July 14 by quintupling the minimum deposit required for such leveraged products, from 10 million won to 50 million won.

Adding a sturdy fundamental buttress, ASML reported second?quarter net sales of €9.3 billion and net profit of €2.9 billion, both ahead of market expectations, with a gross margin of 54.0%. The Dutch lithography giant guided for third?quarter revenue of between €11 billion and €12 billion and, more importantly, raised its full?year 2026 revenue forecast sharply from €36–40 billion to €43–45 billion. Chief executive Fouquet cited customers accelerating their capacity expansion, and the company highlighted that Intel is now using ASML’s High?NA EUV tool for mass production of its “Panther Lake” chips. China’s share of ASML’s system revenue slipped to 14% in the second quarter from 19% in the first, reflecting ongoing export?control dynamics.

Those controls continue to cast a shadow. In July, Nvidia removed more than half of its Asian clients for AI chips from its internal clearance list, acting on a tightened US Commerce Department rule from May 31 that mandates physical inspections of data centres in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan and excludes subsidiaries of Chinese companies. The measure is designed to clamp down on circumvention of export curbs after smuggling allegations emerged against certain market participants.

Technically, the VanEck ETF sits 3.54% above its 50?day moving average of €97.06 and a towering 48.57% above the 200?day average of €67.64. It remains 9.61% below the 52?week high of €111.18 set on June 30, while the distance from the 52?week low of €40.55 from July 2025 stands at 147.81%. The 14?day relative strength index reads 51.2, comfortably neutral, but the annualised 30?day volatility of 63.98% underscores the wild swings the sector has endured. BTIG’s chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky noted that the iShares Semiconductor ETF has moved at least 3.9% each day for six consecutive sessions, a pattern that near a high often points to either an extended consolidation or, in the worst case, a more significant top. Against that backdrop, the DRAM supply narrative and ASML’s raised guidance offer two solid pillars for the chip trade — though the sector’s penchant for violent two?way traffic shows no sign of letting up.