Bayer’s Pipeline Momentum Meets Market Mistrust Ahead of Key Kidney Data

Bayer shares rise as investors await Kerendia Phase III data at ERA Congress; FDA fast-tracks three drugs, new CFO appointed amid Roundup litigation overhang.

Bayer shares rebounded 2.93% to €35.53 in recent trading, paring some of the losses that saw the stock close at €34.52 on Wednesday. The move higher came as investors looked ahead to the full release of Phase III data for Kerendia (finerenone) at the ERA Congress in Glasgow on June 5 — a moment that could determine the drug’s next regulatory frontier.

The FIND-CKD study enrolled more than 1,500 adults with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease, making it the largest Phase III trial conducted in this indication, according to Bayer. Back in March, the company announced the study had met its primary endpoint: finerenone showed a statistically significant improvement in estimated glomerular filtration rate over 32 months compared with placebo. The details, including subgroup analyses for glomerulonephritis and pooled results from the INFINITY analysis combining FIDELIO-DKD, FIGARO-DKD and FIND-CKD, will be presented at the congress. An FDA submission to expand Kerendia’s label to non-diabetic CKD is planned for later this year.

Alongside the kidney data, Bayer has quietly been building pipeline momentum that the market has largely ignored. The US Food and Drug Administration has granted fast-track status to three drug candidates: Asundexian, Kerendia, and Sevabertinib for a specific form of lung cancer. Fast-track designation does not guarantee commercial success, but it signals regulatory willingness to expedite development. The company is also doubling down on ophthalmology through its planned acquisition of Perfuse Therapeutics, a move that leverages existing strengths in the eye-care franchise.

On the financial side, a new chief financial officer took the helm on June 1. Judith Hartmann steps into a role that demands strict capital discipline and a clean balance sheet — no small task given the lingering legal overhang from Roundup litigation. The company’s market capitalisation stands at roughly €34.5 billion. Hartmann cannot erase the legal liabilities overnight, but she can allocate resources more strategically, and the operational business continues to run solidly: the group confirmed its currency-adjusted full-year guidance, with the Crop Science division driving the start of the year.

Yet the share price tells a different story. The stock is trading nearly 7.6% below its 50-day moving average of €38.50, and almost 29% below its February high of €49.93. Over the past 30 days, Bayer has lost more than 6%. Year to date, the decline exceeds 9%. The relative strength index sits at 33.0, deep in oversold territory — though oversold readings alone rarely guarantee a swift reversal. Over a 12-month horizon, the stock still shows a gain of roughly 37%, underscoring that Bayer is not a terminal loser but rather a name undergoing a stalled revaluation.

The disconnect between pipeline progress and market sentiment stems squarely from the glyphosate controversy. Every operational success comes with a valuation discount baked in by investors who price in worst-case legal outcomes. Support near €34 has held so far, and if that level continues to provide a floor, the current price zone may offer an entry point for those willing to bet that the underlying pharmaceutical business will eventually overwhelm the litigation noise. The complete FIND-CKD data set, due on Friday morning at 11:15 BST, will be an early test of whether that bet has legs.