Bayer's Pipeline Momentum Builds as Key Drug Shows Promise

Bayer's pharma division sees surging sales for Nubeqa & Kerendia, plus a landmark Phase III win for anticoagulant asundexian, supporting its post-2026 growth narrative.

The pharmaceutical division of German conglomerate Bayer AG is building a compelling case for a growth resurgence, anchored by promising clinical data and surging sales from new products. The company's strategic narrative, which promises a return to expansion after 2026, is gaining tangible support from its development pipeline.

A significant boost comes from the anticoagulant asundexian. Recently published data in the New England Journal of Medicine demonstrates the drug's efficacy in reducing ischemic events without increasing the risk of major bleeding—a critical balance in cardiovascular medicine. This successful Phase III study is touted by Bayer as the first of its kind for this class of Factor XIa inhibitors, positioning asundexian as a potential successor to older blockbuster drugs. The clean safety profile stands in stark contrast to other recent drug developments, such as new Alzheimer's treatments that have been marred by side effects like brain swelling.

This clinical milestone complements the explosive commercial performance of Bayer's other new pharmaceuticals. The prostate cancer drug Nubeqa saw sales surge 57% in 2025 to €2.4 billion and now treats over 200,000 patients globally following recent approvals for a third indication in the EU and US. Meanwhile, the kidney disease medication Kerendia posted a 79% annual sales increase to €829 million, with fourth-quarter growth alone hitting 93%. Management has set a long-term annual sales target of €3 billion for Kerendia.

The company's broader financial framework remains intact. Pharma COO Sebastian Guth confirmed that newly proposed US import tariffs on pharmaceuticals do not threaten the annual outlook, citing existing trade agreements that cap tariffs on most goods at 15%. Bayer reaffirmed its full-year guidance for currency-adjusted sales of €45 to €47 billion and EBITDA before special items of €9.6 to €10.1 billion. The company also reduced its net financial debt by 8.5% to €29.8 billion by the end of 2025, though free cash flow declined by approximately 33% to €2.1 billion.

Bayer's stock, trading around €40.80, reflects a complex picture. While the share price sits about 17% below its 52-week high of €49.17, it maintains a formidable year-on-year gain of nearly 96% and remains comfortably above its long-term 200-day moving average of €34.02. Since the start of the year, the equity has advanced just over seven percent.

The path forward hinges on managing legacy products while launching new ones. The company identifies 2026 as the final year of headwinds from patent expiries of key drugs Xarelto and Eylea. From 2027 onward, Bayer anticipates mid-single-digit growth rates for its pharma division, targeting operating margins approaching 30% by 2030. This ambition is backed by a record five regulatory approvals in 2025—three for new products and two for new indications—alongside six positive Phase III study readouts.

Investors will get their next chance to assess management's confidence at the virtual Annual Stockholders' Meeting on April 24. The agenda includes a proposed dividend of €0.11 per share, unchanged from the prior year. The event will serve as a key barometer for shareholder belief in the promised growth trajectory set to begin after next year.