Barrick Gold Shares Maintain Upward Momentum on Strong Fundamentals

Barrick Mining CA0679011084

The impressive performance of Barrick Gold Corporation's stock has continued into 2025, with the share price hovering near its 52-week peak. This sustained rally is fueled by robust gold prices, exceptional cash generation, and a strategic focus on streamlining its portfolio. Concurrently, the company is exploring a significant corporate restructuring that could reshape its North American holdings.

A confluence of powerful fundamental drivers is behind the equity's advance. The gold price, a critical revenue determinant, has remained above $4,300 per ounce in 2025. Barrick capitalized on this favorable environment in the third quarter, posting a record operating cash flow of $2.4 billion. Free cash flow for the period stood at $1.5 billion. Operational output remained solid, with production of 829,000 ounces of gold and 55,000 tonnes of copper. Reflecting this financial strength, the board authorized a 25% increase in the quarterly dividend.

This combination has propelled the stock to a new 52-week high of $44.07, cementing its status as a standout performer even within the buoyant gold sector. Since the start of the year, the share price has appreciated by approximately 180%.

Evaluating a Major North American Spin-Off

A pivotal development under review is the potential initial public offering (IPO) of a new subsidiary housing Barrick's premier North American gold assets. The board has tasked management with studying this move. The proposed entity, referred to as "NewCo," would be anchored by key properties:
* Interests in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture
* The Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic
* The fully-owned Fourmile discovery in Nevada

Mark Hill, Barrick's Group Chief Operating Officer and Interim CEO, has hailed Fourmile as "one of the most significant gold discoveries of this century." Under the contemplated structure, Barrick would retain majority control of the new entity while continuing to manage its global portfolio of gold and copper operations.

Portfolio Optimization and Legal Resolution

Barrick is actively sharpening its strategic focus by divesting non-core assets. In late November, the company completed the sale of its Canadian Hemlo gold mine for up to $1.09 billion. This was swiftly followed in early December by the divestment of its stake in the Tongon mine in Côte d'Ivoire for up to $305 million. These transactions are designed to enhance concentration on top-tier assets and reduce exposure to smaller-scale operations.

Furthermore, the company has resolved a two-year dispute with the government of Mali. A settlement agreement valued at approximately $437 million restores Barrick's full operational control over the crucial Loulo-Gounkoto complex. As part of the deal, three tonnes of gold seized in early 2025 will be returned. This mining complex is a cornerstone asset for Barrick, with an annual production capacity ranging between 600,000 and 800,000 ounces of gold.

Analyst Sentiment and Valuation Outlook

These strategic and operational successes have resonated positively with market analysts, prompting several upward revisions:
* Jefferies raised its price target to $55 from $46, citing an estimated free cash flow yield of 12% and naming Barrick its preferred major gold producer.
* National Bankshares increased its target to C$77.50.
* Canaccord Genuity lifted its target to C$70.00.
* BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to a "Strong Buy" rating.
* Citigroup moved its recommendation from "Hold" to "Strong Buy."

The consensus rating among covering analysts is "Buy." Of 15 analysts surveyed, seven maintain a "Buy" rating, seven recommend "Strong Buy," and one advises "Hold."

The sustained rally has elevated Barrick's market capitalization above C$100 billion. The technical picture reinforces the bullish trend, with the current share price trading well above both the 50-day moving average of approximately C$50.83 and the 200-day moving average of C$39.81.

Looking ahead, investors are awaiting an update on the North American IPO review, which Barrick has scheduled for early February 2026 alongside its full-year 2025 results. This announcement is expected to provide critical insight into the company's future strategic direction and valuation framework.