Barrick Gold at a Strategic Crossroads

Barrick Mining CA0679011084

The world's second-largest gold producer, Barrick Gold, is navigating a complex corporate restructuring. Its ambitious plan to spin off and list its North American assets is encountering significant contractual obstacles, even as the company undergoes a simultaneous leadership transition. The central question for investors is whether this overhaul can succeed when a powerful joint-venture partner holds considerable sway.

A change at the top accompanies Barrick's strategic pivot. The company is currently under the interim leadership of CEO Mark Hill, following the departure of former chief executive Mark Bristow. Hill is visibly reshaping the senior management team, with several top executives having already left.

On January 19, the appointment of Helen Cai as the new Chief Financial Officer was announced. She is set to replace Graham Shuttleworth, effective March 1. The board of directors continues its search for a permanent CEO solution. During this period, the company maintains dialogue with major institutional investors, including BlackRock, and is likely engaging with activist investor Elliott, both of whom are expected to have input on the strategic direction.

Newmont's Veto Power: A Hurdle for the North American IPO

At the heart of the current uncertainty is the proposed separation of Barrick's North American operations into a standalone entity for a public listing, with an estimated valuation of approximately $42 billion. However, a joint-venture agreement with rival Newmont imposes strict limitations on this plan.

For the 61.5% stake in the cornerstone North American asset, Nevada Gold Mines (NGM), Newmont holds a right of first refusal on any transfer. This contractual right gives Newmont substantial leverage over Barrick's restructuring strategy.

Key implications include:
* Any transfer of NGM shares requires Newmont's consent.
* Without this agreement, an initial public offering (IPO) of the North American assets in their planned structure is not feasible.
* The affected portfolio would encompass not only NGM but also the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic and the undeveloped Fourmile project in Nevada.

While Newmont has indicated that existing agreements will remain unchanged, it has yet to commit to financing the planned Fourmile expansion—a central component for the success of the proposed IPO vehicle.

Share Performance and Valuation Context

Despite these operational and strategic headwinds, Barrick's stock surged 130% in 2025. A longer-term comparison, however, reveals a more nuanced picture. Over the past five years, competitor Agnico Eagle has achieved a gain of 142%, while Barrick's shares advanced just 52% over the same period.

The equity recently traded at:
* Roughly 69.96 CAD on the Toronto Stock Exchange
* Approximately 51 USD on the New York Stock Exchange

The stock hit new 52-week highs in recent sessions, buoyed by a gold price that briefly surpassed $5,000 per ounce on January 24. From a valuation perspective, analysts see particular potential in the North American assets. The prevailing view is that the North American business could trade at a premium if separated from higher-risk international operations. Currently, the entire company trades at about 13.2 times expected earnings, significantly below its ten-year average of around 20 times.

Geopolitical Risks Underpin Restructuring Rationale

Recent events have provided part of the rationale for the planned separation. In 2025, the military government in Mali temporarily placed a Barrick mine under state control and detained employees. The conflict was only resolved in November.

This episode highlights the geopolitical risks inherent in some of Barrick's international core markets. Against this backdrop, the logic of separating more stable North American operations from volatile international jurisdictions appears compelling to many market participants.

February Earnings to Provide Crucial Details

Barrick is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 5. Management has stated it will provide more detailed information regarding the restructuring timeline and the specific design of the spin-off within this announcement.

Market attention will focus intensely on whether—and how—the unresolved issues with Newmont, including the capital planning for Fourmile, can be integrated into a viable IPO framework. The future independent role of the North American assets in the public markets will also be a key point of clarification.