AST SpaceMobile Faces Twin Headwinds as Rakuten Exits and SpaceX IPO Looms

Rakuten slashes stake, SpaceX IPO looms, and satellite deployment lags as AST SpaceMobile heads into a critical May 11 earnings report.

The stars are not aligning for AST SpaceMobile. The satellite-to-smartphone connectivity company is navigating a perfect storm of selling pressure from a key strategic partner, mounting competitive threats, and internal operational misses that have left investors on edge ahead of its May 11 earnings report.

Rakuten’s Retreat Rattles Confidence

Rakuten Mobile, long viewed as one of AST SpaceMobile’s most steadfast backers, has slashed its stake dramatically. The Japanese telecom giant offloaded large blocks of shares between late April and early May, with transaction prices averaging between $65 and $76 per share. After the selling spree, Rakuten’s holding now stands at just 5.3% of the company.

The scale of the exit is striking. Rakuten entities previously controlled more than 31 million shares. On April 30 alone, they dumped 1.8 million shares in a single transaction. The move carries particular weight given Rakuten’s historical role as both an investor and strategic ally in AST SpaceMobile’s global ambitions.

Competitive Shadows Lengthen

Adding to the pressure, market chatter about a potential SpaceX initial public offering is unsettling AST SpaceMobile’s major institutional investors. Alphabet, the fourth-largest shareholder in the company, could face a portfolio rebalancing dilemma. AST SpaceMobile currently represents an estimated 25% of Alphabet’s relevant space-related holdings. A SpaceX IPO, with projected valuations reaching $1.75 trillion, would dramatically alter that calculus, potentially prompting Alphabet to shift capital toward the more established player.

The competitive landscape is already unforgiving. Both SpaceX and Amazon are operating active satellite services in orbit, while AST SpaceMobile is still racing to deploy its network. The company has set a revenue target of $150 million to $200 million for full-year 2026, but execution remains the critical question.

Operational Targets Missed

CEO Abel Avellan has been working without a base salary since 2021, with his 2025 compensation tied entirely to performance milestones. That bet has backfired. A key target for the number of satellites in orbit, which had a deadline of February 2026, was officially classified as “not achieved,” causing a multimillion-dollar portion of his incentive package to lapse.

The company’s financial results have also underwhelmed. Revenue came in at $70.9 million, narrowly missing analyst expectations. Internal reports suggest the next batch of satellites — units eight through ten — are still in final production, raising doubts about the timeline for deploying the 45 satellites needed by year-end. Bank of America analysts have already flagged that AST SpaceMobile is unlikely to hit that target at its current pace.

Regulatory Tailwind Offers Some Relief

Not all news is grim. The Federal Communications Commission granted approval for AST SpaceMobile to operate up to 248 satellites for direct-to-smartphone connectivity. The green light allows the company to expand its network alongside partners AT&T and Verizon, providing a regulatory foundation for its long-term business model.

Market Sentiment Sours

The stock has been battered across multiple timeframes. While shares managed a 4.2% bounce on Wednesday to €57.00 in European trading, that blip does little to mask the broader damage. The stock has tumbled roughly 28% over the past 30 days and sits well below its 52-week high of €102.00. Year-to-date, the decline exceeds 23%.

Analysts have pegged the stock as a hold with a consensus price target around $75. The May 11 earnings call will be a pivotal moment. Management must convince investors that the satellite deployment schedule remains viable and that the company can close the gap with its better-capitalized rivals.