Analyst Slashes Metaplanet Target Amid Bitcoin Strategy Scrutiny

Metaplanet posts a 95B yen loss on Bitcoin holdings, yet analyst keeps 'Buy' rating. CEO argues crypto is key for future AI economy as revenue grows.

Tokyo-based corporate strategy firm Metaplanet faces significant headwinds as a leading research institution dramatically revised its outlook for the company's shares. On February 23, 2026, Benchmark cut its price target from 2,400 yen to 1,100 yen, a reduction exceeding 50%. Despite this severe downward adjustment, analyst Mark Palmer maintained his "Buy" rating on the stock. The reassessment follows the release of Metaplanet's 2025 financial results, which highlighted the substantial risks of its aggressive cryptocurrency acquisition policy.

Surging Revenue Contrasts With Deep Losses

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, Metaplanet reported a net loss of 95 billion yen (approximately $619 million). This substantial deficit is primarily attributed to unrealized valuation losses on the company's Bitcoin holdings, a direct result of Japanese accounting standards. Metaplanet has accumulated 35,102 Bitcoins, many purchased near the $100,000 price level. The subsequent downturn in the crypto market pushed the average purchase price above current valuations.

In a contrasting bright spot, the company recorded a significant revenue increase, with sales climbing to 8.9 billion yen ($58 million) for 2025. Management has set ambitious goals for the current 2026 fiscal year, targeting 16 billion yen in revenue and an operating profit of 11.4 billion yen. However, the firm declined to provide a specific net profit forecast, citing the inherent volatility of its crypto assets. Its long-term ambition remains the accumulation of 210,000 coins by 2027.

CEO Defends Strategy with AI-Centric Vision

Chief Executive Simon Gerovich has defended the company's treasury strategy with a forward-looking argument centered on artificial intelligence. In a statement on social media platform X on February 23, he posited that Bitcoin will become the primary store of value in an increasingly machine-dominated economy. His comments were a response to a Citrini Research report discussing future economic models and the competitive displacement between human labor and AI.

Gerovich contends that future AI agents will favor decentralized networks over traditional banking systems. He argues that conventional banks are vulnerable to government interference, especially as states grapple with rising unemployment and depreciating fiat currencies. For autonomous software agents, he suggests, holding digital reserves like Bitcoin will become a structural necessity.

Company Rejects Allegations of Poor Disclosure

Metaplanet has recently faced criticism regarding its disclosure practices. CEO Gerovich firmly rejected accusations that the company delayed or obscured information related to its options strategies and credit facilities. He clarified that the sale of put options is a tactic to acquire assets below spot prices and monetize market volatility, not a form of short-term speculation.

Regarding a credit line established in October 2025, Gerovich stated all disclosures were made appropriately, including subsequent drawdowns. The identities of the lenders and the exact interest rates remain confidential, a condition explicitly requested by the counterparties involved.