Analyst Optimism and Higher Guidance Underpin Commerzbank as Q2 Results Approach

Deutsche Bank and RBC reaffirm buy ratings for Commerzbank as the lender raises its 2026 profit forecast and targets a 100% shareholder payout ratio.

Two investment banks have reaffirmed their bullish stances on Commerzbank just days before its second-quarter earnings release, sending a clear signal that the market’s confidence in the lender’s standalone strategy remains intact. The stock touched a fresh 52-week high of €39.18 on July 14 before easing to close at €38.18 on Wednesday — a level that still leaves it only 2.55% shy of that peak and comfortably 10.62% above its 200-day moving average of €34.51.

Deutsche Bank Research analyst Benjamin Goy reiterated a buy rating with a €42 price target, forecasting a strong second-quarter profit before provisions driven by elevated interest income. Across the Atlantic, RBC’s Anke Reingen kept her "outperform" call and a €43 target, pointing to disciplined cost control and brighter prospects for shareholder returns. The RSI sits at 55.4, a neutral reading that leaves technical room for further upside without suggesting the stock is overbought, while 30-day annualised volatility is a modest 22.11%.

The optimism reflects more than just near-term earnings momentum. Commerzbank published a raised net profit forecast for 2026 of at least €3.4 billion, up from the previous guidance of more than €3.2 billion, after first-quarter operating profit jumped 11% to €1.4 billion. That performance was underpinned by a record €1.1 billion in net fee and commission income and a stable net interest income of €2.0 billion despite falling policy rates. The cost-income ratio improved to 53% in the first quarter, and under the "Momentum 2030" strategy, management aims to push that metric down to 43% while lifting return on tangible equity to 21% by the end of the decade. As part of that plan, the bank will invest roughly €600 million in artificial intelligence between 2026 and 2030, expecting an annual value-add of about €500 million from 2031 onwards.

The strategic pivot comes after UniCredit’s takeover bid fizzled. Fewer than 2% of independent shareholders accepted the Italian lender’s offer, which expired on July 3. Chief Executive Bettina Orlopp has since doubled down on a solo growth path, buttressed by a shareholder-friendly payout policy: for 2026, the bank plans to distribute 100% of net profit after AT1 coupons, contingent on the CET1 ratio staying above 13.5%. At 14.5%, the buffer is comfortable, and the market expects a fresh buyback announcement alongside the August 6 numbers.

Still, risks temper the enthusiasm. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11 as inflation remained stubborn at 3.2% in May, and further tightening could pressure credit quality. Analysts anticipate a moderate deterioration in loan books across the European banking sector in the second half of 2026, while geopolitical tensions add a layer of uncertainty to the outlook. On the operational side, Commerzbank plans to cut around 3,000 gross positions by the end of the decade, a restructuring that carries execution risk.

All eyes are now on August 6, when the bank will publish second-quarter results. The numbers will be the first real test of whether the upgraded annual targets are grounded in operational substance. If Commerzbank can demonstrate that interest and fee income are holding up even as the ECB’s path remains uncertain, the stock’s rally — up 34.29% over the past twelve months and 5.18% over the last 30 days — may have further to run. A slip, however, could quickly expose the multi-month gains to a sharp pullback.